sbnwx85

I always jump the gun in the "When Will Watches Be Issued Game". I may never learn.

I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too.

The winter of futility records continues for ya. Smdh. At least the end of the month looks to be active.

Final call: cold rain. Going to be a doozy of an ice storm just about a county or two north though. Might be close enough to look around before work Thursday morning.

I thought NAM would be a bit south too at first but it turned out to be about the same as the previous run with placement of ice in Michigan. Still lofty totals too.

18z GFS says maybe it’s time for me to invest in a generator.

That is a blessing. I’ve been in an ice storm in January 2001 where half of an inch of ice accrued and temps stayed below freezing for over a week. Took several days to restore power.

I’m leaning toward a cold rain here but occasionally a GFS or Euro run gets ice south of the Michigan border…it’s enough to keep me invested. A shift south by 30-50 miles would put me in the worst of the freezing rain. For now, I-94 in Michigan looks like it will get hit the hardest with ice.

GFS is a touch south at 12z. Canadian a touch north. Some relatively minor run-to-run variability but overall each model has been really consistent since Friday.

I’d imagine it would be tough to get much ice along the Illinois/Wisconsin side of the lakeshore with water temps in the mid-30’s and an east wind. Otherwise, it looks like a nasty storm where ever that corridor sets up.

00z GFS pretty much the same as 12z. 00z Canadian came far enough south to bring significant icing to Northern Indiana/Illinois. Going to be fun to track this one.

That crap can stay north thank you very much.

Never got more than a DAB of snow. On to the next one...and 60 degrees next week?

Light glaze followed by a DAB of snow. Hoping we can reach an inch of snow before the event ends.

Yeah, I noticed that too. I won't get too hung up on placement yet but if this one ends up being a miss that will be a major disappointment. Either way, I'll be welcoming Spring after next week.

37 and rain. Yuck.

Final call: Cold rain, freezing drizzle, dab of sleet, inch of snow.

Maybe it's the NAM being the NAM at this range but even SBN gets in on some wintry precip and snow.

I know @Hoosierwas just teasing but certainly not looking for any sympathy. I know I'm lucky to have gotten the snow I've had this winter. The near-record November snow and pre-Christmas blizzard were all lake-effect. Without the lake I'd agree with the ~9" total.

I didn't think it would be possible two months ago, but we are now below average on snowfall for the season. What an odd winter...terrible for many snow-lovers.

52 and full sun. Absolutely gorgeous weather in February. Wind hasn’t kicked in yet. I might plant a palm tree today.

Good call, @Hoosier IWX just issued a rare High Wind Watch. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Northern Indiana 230 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203- 204-216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025- 080330- /O.NEW.KIWX.HW.A.0001.230209T1200Z-230210T0000Z/ Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall- Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington- Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte- Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte- Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams- Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake, Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Rochester, Akron, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne, New Haven, Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington, Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City, Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Michigan City, La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford, North Webster, Leesburg, Wanatah, La Crosse, Union Mills, North Liberty, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, Mendon, Coldwater, Bronson, Hillsdale, Jonesville, Litchfield, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Paw Paw Lake, Niles, New Buffalo, Stevensville, Berrien Springs, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon, Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville, Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne, Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert, Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville 230 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 /130 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023/ ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with frequent gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

We'll see...

If it comes with the same severe weather outbreak, I'll allow it.

I was working in Central IL at the time. It was a solid storm with 10" of snow in Jacksonville/Springfield, but I was jealous of the wind and monster totals my family was getting back home in Indiana. I think a Blizzard Warning went into effect for a while for IWX.