Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Someone is going to get wet in these parts. That's for sure. The PWATs, front, and rich moisture coming off the Atlantic will not be denied.
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Indeed. Maybe a signal for "too much too fast" event?
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I've found it wise to always go with the guidance that shows the most heart break...keeps your expectations low.
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It seems that over the past couple of runs, the operational GEM, ICON, and GFS all have this precip void over DC Metro.
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GFS appears to be the driest of the guidance right now.
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12z GFS appears to be 1" - 3" across the area. Small area of 4" amounts in NE Maryland according to College of DuPage website.
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If you take a look at the 850 moisture transport map on the SPC mesoanalysis, there's a huge fetch of Atlantic and Caribbean moisture coming into the Carolinas. Really impressive to watch.
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Slow the ICON down by about 12 hours as it passes through and we're talking. Still would lean towards the GFS with the trough.
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It 100% is
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I'd lean towards the GFS post South Carolina. By then it's under the influence of the Mid latitude weather features.
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PWATs near 2" will do that!
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Same. GFS isn't exactly encouraging...Euro appears to be on an island right now.
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That would a gut punch.
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Never count on tropical in these parts for a drought buster.
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NHC is not confused. They're doing an excellent job and have been all season.
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Color me shocked.
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Why do people use the ICON at all? I can't remember when it's ever been correct.
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One thing is for sure, Debby will not suffer cool water temperatures.
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IAD gusted to 41kt.
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IAD about to get cooked. Hope we don't lose LWX radar!
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Loudoun County about to get smoked.
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Based off satellite, it appears that TD 5 is starting to organize more. Lots of towers going up.
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Let's not jinx anything. That's like starting a storm thread in the winter at HR240.
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Double it and we're good.
