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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    This could be one of those periods where we close well as these vorts get over the upper air and surface observation network. Suddenly a coating - 1" turns into a widespread 3" - 5" then reinforcing cold air.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Those are pretty solid.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    /thread
  4. Eskimo Joe
  5. Eskimo Joe
    When the southeast and TN Valley posters are getting interested, then you know we're probably in a good spot.
  6. Eskimo Joe
  7. Eskimo Joe
    WPC going cold
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Even PSU is slightly optimistic.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Precipitable Water Amount. As @Bob Chill has said several times, we're at one of the drier times of the year so it's not surprising that we aren't seeing big dog snowstorms at D15.
  10. Eskimo Joe
  11. Eskimo Joe
    January is the low point for PWAT climo in these parts. Sure you can get a big dog like 1996 or 2000, but the big game typically is found in February. Agreed. What a beaut.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    If you're speaking about temps, I would agree. So far this winter, every advertised torch has been muted as we get into the short and medium range.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    See above.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    It won't take much for the 4th to be a legit advisory level event, then we get cold air on fresh snow. Would be like the winters of the early 2000s.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    12z EPS mean has -15 air creeping into NW Maryland towards the end of the run and what appears to be another reload coming down from Canada.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Source region is just wide open. Hot damn.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    This is just about perfect. I cannot find anything wrong with this.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    My window for real action is 1/6 and beyond. As many others here have said, the 1/4 wave appears to be the framework for a very workable pattern for many. If we have to downsize or shift that event to set up the pieces in the medium range, then I'm game.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    ^This. There's nothing more depressing than one big storm that you know is going to melt off in a few days and then peak winter climo is 55 and sunny.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. As it stands now, is we score on 1/4 it would be a boom scenario. We do have decent cold air arriving from a fresh source region with this event, so it would not take a lot for us to score a decent advisory-level event.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Quite anxious to see the 12z Euro, EPS, and GEFS come in. We might have the first legit winter window in several years opening up before our eyes here.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Perfect. Cold and light/mod event after light/mod event. Yea baby. Griteater, "classic boot pattern. Woof"
  23. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS just wants to snow. Nice.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS is plenty cold for the wave on the 4th. Whatever falls would 100% accumulate.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    AMS is 1/12 to 1/16 I believe. Bank on a KU event.
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