Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yea, 1,500 SBCAPE, bit of a lee trough, good ll lapse rates, and okay mid level lapse rates. Also got a belt of 40kt shear. Maybe some sneaky storms in the NW suburbs today? -
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Rocky Gap and Cumberland have won a special place in my heart. Would move out there in a skinny minute.
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Was out in Frostburg yesterday scoping some potential mesonet sites. Western Maryland is beautiful.
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Any pics out of Wilmington, VT?
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Prior to today, Vermont was never in a Day 2 High Risk for rainfall.
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We just suck as weather here. Plain and simple.
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Only saving grace for many is having this system be a few hours early (can't maximize surface instability) and a bit more progressive than forecast. Otherwise, double digit rainfall totals might be more widespread.
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Just a heads up, these cells firing in Baltimore mean business M0.3" in 15 min at my rain gage just NW of Baltimore City.
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WPC meso: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=679&yr=2023
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Radar go brrrr
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Appears Reading ASOS may have measured 0.75" of rain in 15 min. Very impressive.
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Low level lapse rates are pretty decent (approaching 8c/km) and DCAPE is nearing 900j/kg in the watch area. IMO, definitely a wet microburst risk.
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Mesoscale disco for Baltimore metro and points NE: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2023/md1475.html CC: @mappy @toolsheds @psuhoffman
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Sever Thunderstorm Watch until 8pm being issued for most of DC/Baltimore metro.
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Impressive:
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Another watch box coming: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2023/md1474.html
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Pretty safe to say some of the CAMs are busting hard and seem to be underestimating the morning activity. HRRR appears to have missed all of the pre-game convection from I-83 northeast into PA.
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I-76 @ MM 329 (WEADLEY RD) looks to be 1 to 2 feet of water across the road. Mt. Holly CWA jackpots again.
