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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Thank you.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    @Kmlwx I lost the OU CIMMS placefile for GR. Can you post it in here please?
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. This event is climatologically abnormal, and we don't have the rocket fuel to really goose the storms up. Still, we have some decent mid level instability, a belt of shear, and some really solid DCAPE.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Wind probabilities are pretty high on that watch box and there's a decent number of LSRs coming out in MI, PA, and OH.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Some of the CAMs blow through a dying MCS after midnight tonight. We have a decent pool of mid level lapse rates ahead of this line per SPC mesoanalysis (maybe a bit of an EML?) and a lot of DCAPE. Might be an interesting night. At least we stand to get some rain.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR develops a nice MCS with a respectable cold pool and blows it through the region late tonight. Would at lesat be a nice bit of rain.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Good
  8. Eskimo Joe
    I was referring to everything getting swept out to sea this winter, but you do you.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Mean trough in the Midwest is too far east by about 200 miles. Preview of winter? Probably.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Statewide mesonet is in process. We're currently selecting sites statewide and hopefully will be getting physical stations jn the ground in the next 10 to 14 months.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Bust. Meso guidance is poo for.us today. Really not sure why the flood watch is still up. Hopefully we'll score today. New England is stealing our winter snow and summer rains now.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    It's 84 degrees at nearly 11pm. Something is going to give here.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    DCA M60mph National Mall (Smithsonian Castle?) M46mph
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the lead cell in Montgomery gusted out and caused a nice circular outflow boundary. The secondary activity that was over NOVA picked right up on that and just congealed into a nice multi-cell line. Mesoscale meteorology is so cool.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Hail E1.5" reported in Fairfax County. Impressive.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    DCA just gusted to 60 mph
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Kudos to the HRRR for nailing this.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Tend to agree. Even if it's a 20% watch issuance meso. Seems like there's an overall lack of deep layer shear to really congeal the activity, so it's probably just going to be decent pulsers with some wet microbursts.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like 2 distinct clusters. Southern end that already had a warning on it and appears to have a verified LSR coming out. Second cluster near Cumberland. So far, that one looks decent.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Events like that are why I'm in favor of the Enhanced Risk category from SPC. Helps with those rando events where there's decent upside potential but it's not one of those "uh oh" events.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR tries to bring a few beefy cells into the northwest suburbs this afternoon.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Pretty robust DCAPE western zones and already a warned cell with CG in West Virginia.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Might see some sneaky upper 90s today in the UHI.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Mesoscale forecasting is a P.I.T.A. It's nice to have CAMs, but they don't see to handle initiation well in this part of the country.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Westminster ASOS hit 99 today. HX of 104. Wtf.
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