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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    What product on the IEMBot site did you use to get that?
  2. Eskimo Joe
    The best part of the bowing segment is north of I-70.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR hammers Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore counties. Several UHI tracks. DC seems more like run of the mill line of storms.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    They've been hammering the QLCS tornado risk for days. A lot of research has been going in that area in recent years. Tony Lyza on Twitter is all about that focus.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Last moderate severe risk issued: DC/Baltimore: 6/13/2013 Shenandoah Valley/Potomac Highlands: 9/18/2012 Western Maryland: 7/8/2014 Charlottesville/central VA: 4/19/2019 Highland County: 6/16/2008
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Moderate Risk incoming
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Looking less tornado risk and more straight line risk.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    SPC already highlighted the activity in SW PA about the possibility of being the discrete stuff.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Activity in NW WV already has CG on it. That's a good sign.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Ott House or bust.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I'm at FEMA EMI in Emmittsburg this week. We've got sun poking through and it's clear as a bell above the low level junk.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    We're at a three.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Impressed at the lack of mid and upper level clouds. All we have to do is burn off this low level junk and we're golden.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I'm up in Emmittsburg for class all week. I'll be watching storms through the window like I did as a kid.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    00z NAM has a bowing segment similar to the 01z HRRR, but it's further north along the Mason-Dixon counties.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    00z NAMNEST is a legit bow right through the entire DC Metro. It also has a UHI track right through Frederick and Carroll counties similar to the 01z HRRR.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    The 01z HRRR puts a lead cluster through Frederick and Carroll counties around 19z Monday, with a solid UHI track just north of Frederick City. Main line well to the west with several bowing segments across WV. EDIT: After AM clouds, we break out into the warm sector with near full sun shine.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Surprised there was s flood watch to be honest. It's been dry and this front end stuff looks kind of benign.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=92
  20. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR does a DC split. Solid supercell driving right along I-70, another decent batch south of I-66. In between is pretty run-of-the-mill.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    FWIW, the experimental HREF from SPC has us socked in with low level clouds tomorrow morning, but they seem to burn off by 11am. The guidance that is most aggressive with convection tomorrow seems to have two things in common: 1.) Clouds burn off by 10am - 12pm. 2.) Minimal mid and high level debris clouds from tonight's convection. If we wake up to a favorable visible satellite tomorrow, I do believe that we will realize a solid ENH to maybe low level MOD risk day. My thinking is entirely hinged on the ability of strong sunshine sustaining itself so storms can root to the surface and realize the low level instability. That would help us maximize the best helicity and shear. It would not surprise me to see a few tornadoes tomorrow, especially east of I-95 where storms can take advantage of the typical mesoscale boundaries near Chesapeake Bay. Flooding is not something I am terribly worried about. Storm motion seems rather progressive and it's been dry the past two weeks.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    According to the IEMbot archives, only 6/13/2013 was the other time that a portion of Maryland was under a 45% Day 2 wind contour.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    What are your thoughts on tomorrow's potential?
  24. Eskimo Joe
    If these storm could hold off until 6/7pm that'd be great.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Got a screenshot for those of us who are mobile?
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