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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Yea kind of wonder why so many people are worried about the tornado risk up towards DC.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    They might be waiting for the 18z IAD launch.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the cells firing in western MD and the WV panhandle are that lead cluster some of the CAMs were honing in on yesterday and this morning.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Starting to wonder if they're going to go 30% tor or something.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Discrete cell ahead of the main line in Charleston, WV. Already has "the look".
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Yea probably to coincide with the hatching on the meso
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Highly doubt it.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    First tornado warning of the day in far NW WV.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Northern end of that line went bonkers fast in WV.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    LWX launching a special 18z balloon.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Per the SPC mesoanalysis, we're losing convective inhibition pretty quickly. I'll be interested to see if we can hold off on any crapvection.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    First SVR warning of the day near Parkesburg, WV.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Thursday could another active day, but let's focus on today first.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Per the 12z sounding from IAD, today's convective temp is 90 degrees. We have a ways to go for heating if we want to maximize potential.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    It's product #230 thank you.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    i'm in favor of keeping things here.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Next 1 to 3 hours will be key. I don't want to see us get stuck with pre-frontal convection that kills instability off or persistent low clouds.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    I'd rather we keep everything here.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    12z NAMNest slams Baltimore. Mature bowing structure goes right through their metro right at peak heating.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=counties-map&colorbar=undefined
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Here's the event from the SPC archive: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120629
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Two issues for that day: 1.) I don't think the EML was properly diagnosed until the 18z RAOB from ILN and the 00z soundings from LWX and PBZ came out. 2.) CAMS were still a work in progress and were all over the board. The CAMS that had the EML right blew the derecho through DC.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. SPC high risk days seem to be focused on tornadoes, and that's fine. I still think the 2012 Derecho should've been a hatched 60%.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    There has never been a High Risk for our area and I don't see how one would be needed today.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    00z HREF from SPC was big to focus on a lack of mid and upper level cloud deck. That's often a hinderance for our bigger sever weather days. If we can just clear this low level junk out we should be golden.
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