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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Unless something changes dramatically, it appears that many of us went too high with temperatures for this summer.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Reverse psychology on my part right now. I'm so desperate for winter.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    You know it's going to happen.
  4. Eskimo Joe
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Euro just isn't reliable for rainfall anymore. It's clear something has been tweaked and now it's just too west and too far south or west with QPF maximums.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Saw Mill Rd was wrecked. The storm that went through there ultimately became the tornado warned event in York County.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    CC: @mappy
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Details at 5, 6, and 11.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. The CWG articles about how this was a bust because no tornadoes were recorded is short sighted. They should know better that damage assessments day up to 10 days and these watch boxes will more than verify.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    To be honest, we're fortunate the low level winds weren't more conducive for sustained rotating updrafts. Monday had the potential to be a late breaking High Risk day. Once the 18z special RAOBs went up, it was clear this was going to be a straight line wind kind of day, with embedded spin ups. This reinforces my belief that real mesoscale forecasting hinges on things like soundings, mesonets, and a well rained cadre of field spotters (SKYWARN, fire, EM, DT etc.). It's hilarious and frustrating to see DC bros cackling about how this was a complete bust because the national mall wasn't wiped off the face of the earth, while the suburbs where everyone lives were hit much harder.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    ^yes. Thursday has sneaky severe potential.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Great thread. Worth a read.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    As expected, SPC and NWS are out doing real yeoman's work again. AWell done.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Just a heads up for everyone. If you're without power, be wary of downed lines over the next day or two. As the grid is re-energized lines that seem dead may re-energize without warning. We're seeing that across northern Carroll and Baltimore counties this evening.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Because they run the team like a consulting firm. It's a business. They're in it for the money, not the winning.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    We had three out of four things on my checklist: 1.) Anomalous low pressure to our NW passing during prime heating. 2.) Strong jet streak 3.) Strong EML 4.) Strong surface heating. So many times we hype leading up to an event, only to have an anemic 18z RAOB out of IAD. Not so yesterday, we were about as primed as you can get for August.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    CTP is apparently investigating the area for a possible tornado. Makes sense. There was a decent, sustained mesocyclone moving through that area.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Per State Highway, minimum of 2 to 3 days. Have to get transformers with high enough amperage and coordinate with telecom companies to get everything re-strung.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    DCA might as well be Tampa Bay at this point
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Feels like an early taste of autumn. I wonder if we luck out this year with persistent blocking and finally have a legit winter?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Hampstead fire department's carnival grounds were hit pretty hard. Smart move for them to not hold the carnival last night. I'm convinced there was a tornado with that warning just north of Manchester.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    BGE had a sinkhole open up under one of their trucks on Salem Bottom road last night. It flipped the truck with the crew in it in the middle of the night. I know they suspended operations for the night after that so I'm sure they're going to be slower with power restoration.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. When I go full in, we score.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Moderate Risk 100% verified: https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#LWX/202308070400/202308080359/0110
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Moderate Risk was easily justified, IMO. Looks like at least 2 tornadoes in PA today. LWX catching up with LSRs now.
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