Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It was funny the day after games. She lived in Shady Side off 5th avenue and there was a grocery store near her apartment. There was this group of retired guys that would drink coffee and eat donuts out front of the store every Monday and complain about how it "wasn't a good victory" and dissect the game play by play. I thought that was a one off, but that scene repeated itself all over the city. Random people just arguing over the quality of winds. I've never seen that anywhere else in any other fan base! As for this winter, I think S Central PA hits climo snow. Probably nothing to write home about for this winter, I truly hope I'm wrong. I've become increasingly pessimistic about "good winters" where the season isn't a torch and snow cover lasts more than 20 minutes. -
Classic autumn brush fire risk.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My wife went to Pitt for grad school in 2011-2012. I went to see her in the Burgh every weekend. If it's one thing I've learned, it's that Steelers fans are never happy with their teams record. Even if they win the Super Bowl, it probably wasn't a "good win". -
ABC 7 isn't the A Team of forecasting.
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We'll never see another 2009 - 2010 winter in our lifetimes at this latitude. Are you in favor of that evolution or not? I'm concerned the ridge being too far east would push our trough and subsequent coastal lows too far offshore.
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Even a bit of ridging over Greenland?
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^not bad
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Any peer reviewed research available to read?
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What does that mean? I've never heard of an Atlantic tripole.
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Good to see. Let's hope it continues. It's slightly encouraging to see the main lobe of the polar vortex on our side of the globe. Would like to see a big more ridging in the NAO domain, but the Pacific doesn't look nearly as hostile as previous runs. Hope this continues.
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Agreed. Big test will be to see if: 1.) This pattern holds or improves as we near the timeframe 2.) Do we "kick the can" 3.) Do we score? Even if it's the NW suburbs that get a 1" - 2" slushy coating on the grass, that would be a win.
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Looks like a sun spike. https://www.lakeeriewx.com/CaseStudies/RadarSunSpikes/RadarSunSpikes_copy(1).html
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Things definitely trending in the right direction for New England on the GFS and Euro. Heck, the 00z Euro and it's ENS appear ready to deliver a legit polar air mass late next week. Might crank up the lake effect machine.
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Yea I was surprised. The CC imagery suggested snow as far east as Sabilasville and Catoctin Mt, but only Garrett County appears to have picked up anything of consequence.
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I just checked the climate reports for both sites and did not see any snow recorded at either location.
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To my knowledge, that capability does not exist.
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The airport is getting developed and they started planting corn in the field nearby so the Td in the summer is getting weirder.
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What are those benchmarks? You can DM me if you don't want the peanut gallery giving you static.
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It's amazing how colder Westminster is compared to Reisterstown. Even colder is the Rt. 31 corridor to New Windsor and Union Bridge.
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Down to 28 in Reisterstown with a respectable frost.
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If the 850 low is over Hagerstown, I'd forecast a flip to rain. For DCA and IAD to max snowfall, we need the 850 low to run west to east along I-64. The December 2009 snowstorm is the best example of that: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09-850MillibarMaps.html
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True, but as we've seen time and time again if we get a uncooperative Pacific, a la -PNA and/or -PDO, the NAO means squat.
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Let's see how we look in a month. Right now, I'm not so sure. This Nino isn't behaving like others and I'm worried we are going to be forever kicking the can this winter....again.
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-Warming climate -Persistent -PNA/+AO -East base El Nino -Persistent neutral to +NAO That plus we're staring down a dry November which historically does not bode well south of 40° North. I hope I'm wrong and I get bump trolled, but I don't see how BWI south get more than 50 to 75 percent of snow climo this year.
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I'm sorry about your dad. Mine passed in late September after a long illness. I hope your forecast is right, I'm extremely pessimistic about Mid Atlantic snowfall chances this year, moreso than usual.
