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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. From @Rainshadow. How MJO phases translate in December:
  2. Our yellow jackets have died off. Glory to the cold weather.
  3. Let's not count our raindrops before they hatch.
  4. 00z Euro tries to give us some TV Snow to end November / start December.
  5. Thank you very much for the insight. I really appreciate the explanation.
  6. Does the timing of the ENSO peak matter as much as the placement and strength?
  7. BWI: 12 DCA: 5 IAD: 15 RIC: 4 Tiebreaker -- SBY: 4
  8. Not really a good sign. Trying to be optimistic but the writing may be on the wall for this winter.
  9. Much better position of the TPV too, the western ridge is stronger, and the trough NW of Hawaii is back.
  10. Winter is always 10 days away in the Mid Atlantic!
  11. It could be worse. You could have people trying to correlate natural gas futures to the state of the NAO for the upcoming winter.
  12. I see the Euro's mid range wet bias is at it again.
  13. Yes that can happen, but typically it's reserved for a La Nina year where the southeast ridge is pumped up and just deflects everything away from us.
  14. Yup. Mosby's is one of our favorite places to go when we're in town.
  15. Nice. My wife grew up in West Hempfield and her parents live in Mt. Joy behind the old Darrenkamps.
  16. For that to work in our favor, we want it to bleed south slowly and really pour into the US to our west. We don't want some shot of cold air directed right over us like last winter because it just jacks up the pattern and we get stuck in cold and dry for a few days.
  17. With the pattern advertised on the 12z EPS we should also see decent snow cover develop over southern Canada and the Great Lakes. Good to build it up now so future airmasses during better climo aren't modified too much over warm, bare ground.
  18. This will be our first test to see if we'll see a juiced up, cold verification or bust.
  19. Everybody gets a brush fire through Saturday
  20. ^weak wave riding a fresh airmass...we can score easily in those events.
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