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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC meso-analysis shows respectable mini EML from DC north into southern PA, and also a boundary of DCAPE from I-70 south. This looks like a day where some big cell goes across Parr's Ridge and everyone else waits for the main show after sunset.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like some initiation is starting in SW West Virginia per visible satellite.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    The latest SPC meson analysis definitely shows a weak EML, with mid level lapse rates trying to touch 7°c/km, plenty of DCAPE, and Total Totals are already pushing 50 near DC. But there's just no real shear to move things along. The morning balloon out of IAD has a convective temp of 94°, and mid level lapse rates of 7.2c/km. All in all, probably enough for several rounds of thunderstorms regionwide today, perhaps a few decent updrafts. it wouldn't shock me if SPC introduced a 30% wind in the area, but I would argue that would be from DC and points north where there's slightly better upper level support. I'd gladly take the rain though. Our mesonet stations show the 2" and 5" soil moisture values are crispy. EDIT: RNK and PIT soundings show a bit of an EML too.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    LOL
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Complete whiff?
  6. Eskimo Joe
    89 here.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Yea this is looking like more and more of a bust in the severe department. Too many things getting mis-timed.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR, while at range, is an absolute snooze fest for severe across the board. We get multiple rounds of strong showers after some early crapvection ruins the afternoon potential. The upside is that we all get at least a half inch of much needed rain.
  9. Eskimo Joe
  10. Eskimo Joe
    That nado cast goes 15% over DC -> Baltimore tomorrow. . . .
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Split the difference, put an ENH with a 30% wind and 5% TOR on the SWODY1 tomorrow and see how it plays out.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    That seems. . . .aggressive. While it was accurate for the 5% TOR over DC, it missed the other 4 areas it forecast for tornadoes. As a result, it ended up with a 20% accuracy rate nationally.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    We'd need everything to come together perfectly tomorrow for that. I'm more worried now about debris clouds from the midwest just holding us in the mid 80s tomorrow and we don't event get any storms at all.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    GFS appears to have lost the EML plume. 12z NAM is pretty meh for severe weather chances. Looks like a standard Slight Risk day might be shaping up.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    People probably worried about a derecho.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Just like that everything falls apart. Lol.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Imagine if we got a redux of winter 2010-2011. I'd sign in a skinny minute.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    18z GFS appears to advect a piece of an EML directly across us underneath a belt of 75 kt winds. That, plus some better timing, would lead to a solid severe weather day in these parts. Still, we're over two days away and a lot can go wrong. Additionally, today's 12z and 18z operational GFS develop a surface low in the lee of the Appalachian Mts. This combined with the other features I just mention, could offset the normal mesoscale issues that plague our severe weather chances in this part.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Wednesday has potential
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Wednesday could be a decent ENH day if the timing works out. The dynamics aren't too bad and there will be a respectable amount of surface instability.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. As far as a late June day in DC goes, this is going to be nice.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    That's not rotation, it's a collapse of the updraft resulting in a modest downburst.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    College Park and Baltimore Inner Harbor also at or above 90.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    IAD has really gotten warm in the past decade. Really shows how much the UHI has expanded west.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Westminster hit 102. We likely turn it up a notch tomorrow.
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