Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230
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By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times. LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006
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All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.
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Very La Nina-esque, warm/wet then cold/dry.
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But hey, CC is fake.
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This will be a year of lowered expectations. Getting climo will seem like a banner year.
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Kind of wonder if that's the sacrificial storm as we see things shuffle slowly towards a more favorable long wave pattern?
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The short wave responsible for the potential Wednesday event does not get over the upper air network until midday Monday, 12/4. We'll probably see things waffle until the 00z/12z runs on Monday. I know in the past that sometimes the GFS can sniff out a northern stream dominant system quick than the Euro. This event will be an important test case to see if one model is picking up on stuff earlier than the others.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So long as it includes DCA, BWI, and IAD...sure. FWIW, 12z Euro has a weaker, more progressively tilted trough for next Wednesday's storm. It's an issue south of Mason-Dixon, but north of Rt. 30 would still see something. -
Trough on the 12z Euro is weaker and more progressive than the GFS. Canadian is, to my eyes, in between. Kind of interested to see what the UKMET has.
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Just want to get on the board. 2" - 4" is perfect.
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It's nice. Hope this isn't a head fake. We'll see how we're looking by Sunday night.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Unable to currently share an image, but the 12z GFS gives just the lower third of PA it's first legit shot of a light accumulating snow next Wednesday evening, 12/6. Several moving parts, but things shift for the better at 500mb over the past 24 hours. -
12z GFS op @ HR 153.
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Last year, 2022-2023, my COOP site RSTM2 recorded less than 12 nights below 25 degrees. We already have 4 this season.
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Look at the sharp west coast ridge though. It counteracts the Alaska low temporarily and the ridge crests over Idaho as the trough goes negative over Missouri.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Is that your current temperature, or the overnight low? -
850 temps are good throughout the event north of I-66. The 925 temps are naso good though. Would argue it's a car topper or TV Snow ™ event.
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Yup. We're two weeks behind the average first freeze date of 11/14.
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Lancaster County has a more favorable climo for that compared to BWI, DCA, and IAD. If I could move back to Lancaster, I would.
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I have no illusions about a big storm in December. The 12/2009 event was a total fluke and we'll almost certainly never see something like that again in our lifetimes. A 3" - 5" even for Christmas would be amazing this year. Maybe we score?
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DCA got down to 25 degrees. Nice.
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Just need snow. I'll gladly take a 2" - 4" event.
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Exactly The positioning is bad.
