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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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GFS has indeed been schooling the GFS in the "no snow" department for years. Euro a shell of it's former self unfortunately.
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Cool let's get them more snow.
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Definitely could see the Catoctins getting their first dusting of snow with this system.
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When was the last time the PDO Was in a positive phase?
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Got a screenshot?
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^what does the next frame look like?
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Appreciate the insight. I'm not expecting 15 degrees and cold powder this winter, especially down in Maryland. Just need 30/28 and pillows.
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Weeklies seem to keep the GOA low too close to the Canadian coast and flood them with Pacific Puke. Do you think this is a red flag for the rest of winter?
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You'll probably end up with half an inch on the back side here. Sometimes that end of the PVA can juice some big flakes.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Keep the pics coming! -
Cool. Hope we get another. The 50/50 low was legit too. I remember on the 12/19 storm, I came back to Philly and the news had a reporter in the Lehigh Valley reporting on partly sunny conditions while Philly was reporting it's 4th consecutive hour of heavy snow. It was amazing.
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Some DOT cams have a legit coating of snow on the grass.
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Wonder if this weekend's rainstorm starts that process. I think something similar happened in 2009 where we had a rainstorm around the 9th that re-shuffled everything in the Atlantic in time for the 12/19 storm.
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Precip in sight but not reaching the ground.
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Spatan or bust.
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18z GEFS looks good at 500mb, but it's a blistering torch across Canada at the surface unfortunately.
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Shocker. Always put your money in the model that shows the least amount of snow.
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Amazing how the 12z EPS 1% snowfall probability illustrated Parr's Ridge in Maryland, and the Welsh Mountains and Furnace hills in Lancaster County, PA.
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SPC mesoanalysis has low level lapse rates of -7.5 to -8 c/km over our area. That's efficient for transporting cold air to the surface and sustaining frozen precip as the convective elements work through the region.
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Legit decent burst of SN- in Reisterstown. Marking today as Trace amount of snow.
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Euro amplifies a wave of low pressure along the front that tugs the cold air in before things can dry out. GFS does the same thing, but to a lesser extent so it's mainly a car topper N&W. Still would be more snow for many than the last 2 years.
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Thanks for the insight. Appreciate it. I understand the GOA low is a permanent feature, just don't like the placement.