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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. GFS has indeed been schooling the GFS in the "no snow" department for years. Euro a shell of it's former self unfortunately.
  2. Cool let's get them more snow.
  3. Definitely could see the Catoctins getting their first dusting of snow with this system.
  4. 12z Euro at HR 93 (12z Mon, 12/11) for northern Maryland. Maybe some TV Snow?
  5. ^what does the next frame look like?
  6. Appreciate the insight. I'm not expecting 15 degrees and cold powder this winter, especially down in Maryland. Just need 30/28 and pillows.
  7. Weeklies seem to keep the GOA low too close to the Canadian coast and flood them with Pacific Puke. Do you think this is a red flag for the rest of winter?
  8. You'll probably end up with half an inch on the back side here. Sometimes that end of the PVA can juice some big flakes.
  9. Cool. Hope we get another. The 50/50 low was legit too. I remember on the 12/19 storm, I came back to Philly and the news had a reporter in the Lehigh Valley reporting on partly sunny conditions while Philly was reporting it's 4th consecutive hour of heavy snow. It was amazing.
  10. Some DOT cams have a legit coating of snow on the grass.
  11. Wonder if this weekend's rainstorm starts that process. I think something similar happened in 2009 where we had a rainstorm around the 9th that re-shuffled everything in the Atlantic in time for the 12/19 storm.
  12. Precip in sight but not reaching the ground.
  13. 18z GEFS looks good at 500mb, but it's a blistering torch across Canada at the surface unfortunately.
  14. Shocker. Always put your money in the model that shows the least amount of snow.
  15. Amazing how the 12z EPS 1% snowfall probability illustrated Parr's Ridge in Maryland, and the Welsh Mountains and Furnace hills in Lancaster County, PA.
  16. SPC mesoanalysis has low level lapse rates of -7.5 to -8 c/km over our area. That's efficient for transporting cold air to the surface and sustaining frozen precip as the convective elements work through the region.
  17. Legit decent burst of SN- in Reisterstown. Marking today as Trace amount of snow.
  18. Euro amplifies a wave of low pressure along the front that tugs the cold air in before things can dry out. GFS does the same thing, but to a lesser extent so it's mainly a car topper N&W. Still would be more snow for many than the last 2 years.
  19. Thanks for the insight. Appreciate it. I understand the GOA low is a permanent feature, just don't like the placement.
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