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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Offshore 850 temps are much colder this run. Even with an E or ESE wind you're advecting -4 air. You won't have a lot of mixing concerns with that.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    That event was different in several ways. One of it being we had a strengthening low driving east out of the Blue Ridge.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Holy GFS Please make me eat crow.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    When National Geographic runs a 1 hour special on the storm and interviews Barb Watson, you know it was a solid event.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    1996 is the king. End discussion.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Unpopular Opinion: the 2016 storm was an I-95 and west event.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Epic winter.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Confluence can and does trend stronger as an event nears. There are not many upper air sites in eastern Canada. See the Dec 2009 event. There was forecast to be a sharp snowfall gradient in PA and as the event closed a piece of the confluence was analyzed by the RAOB network in the northeast US. It caused the snowfall forecast for central PA to bust too high.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    I hope the entire subforum gets rekt this winter and we both have to eat crow.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    It's all confluence. Look at the placement of the high on the 18z GFS. Stronger and further west. It's much better.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I don't care what others say, until the southern jet feature is inside the North American RAOB network, wild swings occur. During the Dec 2009 snowstorm, there was a RAOB site (New Orleans?) that was launched late and they didn't get in for the 00z GFS. The result was a dry looking 00z GFS/GEFS that freaked a lot of people out. Thankfully someone here caught it in the NCEP model diagnostic disco (I think it was either you or @WxUSAF). Color us shocked when the 12z GGS/GEFS snapped back to a big storm.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Two rules that have consistently served me well: 1.) Changes in the first event likely impact the second, for better or worse. 2.) Details on the second event typically won't become clear until the next operational run that has RAOB data (00z or 12z). Example: the 2nd Feb 2010 event became clearer 12 hours after the first event had cleared out.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Our team is intrigued as well. In fact, we have a mesonet site and a micronet site going in College Park in an area with less concrete this spring. We'll see what the results are.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    UMD has added a micronet to the Maryland Mesonet for College Park. Early results show a clear UHI.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    The gradient from that event was incredible. Takoma Park recorded 5" of snow, while Damascus got almost 24", IIRC.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Wait until we get into the wheelhouse of the short term guidance and it runs the mix line all the way up to Albany last minute. I hope.Im wrong but we saw that with the 2018 December event.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    What kind of horse? We own a Clydesdale mix.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Topped out at 56 degrees. Our low temperature the last few nights has been near the normal high temperature....
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Do you believe if we had a neutral or slightly positive PDO phase this winter, things would have been different? Do you think we will ever see a +PDO again? It seems like a latch key for any decent snow chances in these parts.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    That's 1am and it's almost 70 degrees from NYC south. Read the room.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Well probably never see that again in these parts.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    It's an overwhelming Pacific jet that torched Canada for weeks. Our oceans have warmed and once that gets cranking it takes forever for it to wind down and then we waste peak climo rebuilding our source region. I don't see how we ever meet or exceed climo in these parts again unless it's a worthless storm like 2015-2016 where we get one small window and statistically get an average winter.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Yea SSW seems a bust.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality.
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