Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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For the NW suburbs crew:
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Parrs Ridge baby. It never fails @wxmeddler has done some research on it.
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That would be a great jackpot for my NWS COOP site in Reisterstown.
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Absolutely
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Feb 2 to 18 is the climo window in these parts for Top 10 snow events. If we can't manage at least 1 healthy warning level event this year in that window, then we are truly forever screwed. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Beyond HR 72, my preferred model suites are the 00z and 12z because they incorporate fresh upper air data. The Pacific Ocean is a data hole. While we have increased capabilities with GOES-R, nothing will beat a sampled atmosphere from an upper air balloon. -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Eskimo Joe replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Spot on as usual. You can also see the Monocacy Valley snow hole illustrated. It seems to rear it's ugly head when there isn't sustained cold air draining into Frederick City. I know that's been the perennial bane of @catoctin wx and @Mrs.J
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Excellent information. For the record, all Maryland Mesonet sites will have 2", 5", 10", 20" and 1 meter soil temperatures values. All data will be sent to NOAA for incorporation into whatever system they have for ground temp monitoring. We have 5 sites online. It might be worthwhile for folks to bookmark this site as we start dancing around snowfall probabilities.
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If we could manage 3" - 5" or even something like 4" - 7", that would be the biggest event for many in years.
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We are a snow town!
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Probably would be better in the future to avoid starting threads for potential events until we're within 72 hours of the event.
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Anyone forecasting normal or above normal snowfall for this winter is in trouble. We're down like 21-0 in the 3rd quarter and our offense is doing nothing.
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I haven't recorded a below freezing low temperature since Dec 21st.
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Saw NWS Pittsburgh post this. Here's some NBM data that covers a good chunk of the subforum. For reference, 5" of snow in 12 hours is the warning criteria in these parts. If these numbers hold, it's quite possible we're looking at a decent advisory level event with a jackpot to a low level warning event for the NW suburbs.
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CMC with old Pittsburgh - DC rule. If one location is getting 6"+ of snow, the other likely isn't.
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To be clear, I'm hoping for 3" - 5" of snow at home this weekend. We've been in a bad snow drought since 2016 as a region and folks are almost zero tolerance for another rug pull. That is complete understandable.
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This room should be filling again shortly. Absolutely ugly 12z suite thus far.
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Watch the 12z guidance absolutely shit the bed today. @WxUSAF wouldn't be safe anywhere.
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Ah thanks for the clarification.
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06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs, IIRC. Here's the 00z EPS for you:
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