I prefer a model that is too slow on eroding cold air damming. For Example, if it shows you're above freezing by 12:00 pm and we know it has a cold bias, then it boosts confidence that things will clear up in the afternoon.
Only mesonet site in the state with ground temps above freezing is Clarksville, which is at 34 degrees. When the snow starts later today in earnest, it will stick quick.
No. I've just seen this before. Models juice up last minute and LWX has to play catch up for the northwest crew. We have a front, fresh air mass, and a low riding along it. Classic 4th quarter snow win.
It honestly wouldn't shock me to see a late upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the NW suburbs. I think everyone reels this in, with the usual suspects getting a late boom.
Mesonet site in Clarksville shows 2 inch soil temps down to 34 degrees. Expect this to continue dropping today. Our Easton site shows a temp of 32 degrees at 2 inch soil depth. Expect the roads to get bad today.