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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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  1. Eskimo Joe
    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN TENNESSEE, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. ALOFT, CLOSED LOW IS NEAR MEMPHIS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT, SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR PITTSBURGH, PUSHING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO MIGRATE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN RELATIVELY BENIGN, WITH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY THANKS TO THE MORNING CLOUDS KEEPING SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS FAR AS WE KNOW AS OF THIS WRITING. THUS, IT APPEARS THE FIRST ROUND IS MORE OF A PRIMER, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TIME FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH FOR A BIT AFTER IT PASS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN LINE, CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND 850 MB WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS, ANY SUN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO ENHANCES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THUS, TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 AM. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SEEMS TO SHIFT TOWARDS MORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS, A TORNADO COULD STILL NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT. AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE 50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Satellite and surface obs in SW VA and western NC show the airmass recovering back into the lower to mid 70s. If that materializes further northeast into the greater DC and Baltimore area later this afternoon that could bode well for a decent line of storm.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Looking behind this initial batch of precip, it appears that some breaks in the clouds are occuring across NC and VA. We're going to need to clear out and get some additional sunshine before the main line works its way through to realize any potential for Round #2 this evening.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    AKQ Tornado Watch going out now it appears: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0091.html
  5. Eskimo Joe
    The cell is still a bit away from the radar site so it's sampling around ~3200 ft AGL. The 0.8° scan isn't terribly impressive so it might be picking up on more of a mid level meso than something closer to the surface. If it persist as it nears the site then perhaps the circulation could justify a TOR.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    The SVR warned cell near Brokenburg is tightening up a bit...wouldn't shock me if LWX pulls to TOR trigger.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    They're likely next. Their CWA is more under the other meso that @mappy mentioned: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0402.html
  8. Eskimo Joe
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. The meso for us is outlined in red too, which seems to be a subtle hint a tornado watch is favored.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Wonder if this is going to be one of those days where things get proactively warned because of transient rotation showing up on radar.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    SLGT extended to PA...5% TOR for everyone east of I-81. Seems kinda aggressive given the cloud cover though. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190419_1630.html
  12. Eskimo Joe
    For phone spend the $10 and get RadarScope...best $10 you'll ever spend.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Meso fro 80% chance of a watch: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0401.html
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Here comes the crapvection....
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Impressive damage reports coming out of Sontag...sounds like a fire truck crashed due to trees coming down on or around it on the road.
  16. Eskimo Joe
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the cell east of Rocky Mount is winding down. Seems to be slamming into more stable air in the mountain but no doubt it was on the ground for some time. EDIT: Damage still being reported into RNK east of Rocky Mount. Wonder if they drop another TOR.
  18. Eskimo Joe
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Per RNK they have a TDS near Sontag.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    I would say that's a "legit" report given how detailed the tweet is and they reiterated that it's believed to have been confirmed.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Red Box going out for NC and VA now until 21:00 UTC: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0088.html
  22. Eskimo Joe
    New TOR for Franklin County, VA coming out.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    *Maybe* there's the CC Drop? It was there and gone right as it went over Oak Level.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    The 0.5° scan is at ~1300 feet but it extends up towards on the 0.9° and 1.3° so it's definitely wound up.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Yikes Oak Level, VA.
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