Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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SVR for Frederick, MD
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Interesting to see winds backing a bit to the SE east of US 15. Seems to be nudging the dews up a bit.
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95% chance of a watch for us: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1664.html
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Summary says "watch likely" but disco says "watch possible" heh
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MCD out for 80% chance of a watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1663.html
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Yea watch today absolutely bust...that would be pretty loltastic.
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Terrain induced initiation just west of Loudoun County.
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Yea it makes sense. I'm not arguing we're going to have some big squall line come through, but there's probably a case to be made to a 60 ot 65kt blue box later today owing to some beefy multi-cell clusters.
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Pretty good low level lapse rates today. Really thinking we're going to see some decent wind reports from anything that fires up.
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LWX will likely crack 500 SVRs for the year today. They're currently at 498 including the one issued this morning.
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If we can manage to warm enough ahead of this activity today there could be some significant wind reports. This is a pretty nice system passing through and even HM is interested in it. The current warned storm just west of Harrisonburg would probably be the biggie of the day. It's already dropping a lot of CG and it's not even 9am.
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Tornado Probability of Detection Statistics
Eskimo Joe replied to JEH's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Your best bet is to contact your local NWS office. They may be able to link to a specific reg or guidance. -
We won't even have the NAM or SREFs to cling to anymore. #EPIC https://owaq.noaa.gov/Programs/EPIC
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2019 Mid Atlantic Lawn, Garden, Pool, etc. Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Eskimo Joe's topic in Mid Atlantic
Chasing swallotails...RIP my right arm. -
2019 Mid Atlantic Lawn, Garden, Pool, etc. Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Eskimo Joe's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gardened for most of the day Sunday and got Rue Rash....far worse than poison ivy. Blerg it burns and doctor has nothing for it except to let it run its course for about 10 days. -
44kt at Andrew's AFB
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Man this sure is some MOD Risk of flooding.
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New TOR for Carroll and Baltimore until 4pm
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Where and how big?
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The TOR was warned off BWI terminal...had a better look compared to LWX.
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If anybody observes damage in Montgomery, please let me know. Date/time/locations...etc. ty.
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DCA up to 93°...hopefully we notch another 95° reading.
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SPC issues Blue Box until 02:00 UTC 7/23/19
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Warned storm headed right for @EastCoast NPZ. The activity just west of I-81 is about to enter the more unstable airmass and cross over some surface convergence as highlighted on the SPC meso analysis page. We will probably know in the next hour if the NAM/HRRR is right or on underestimating things...hopefully the latter.
