Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Man this "line" looks pretty paltry so far, wonder if its just in the mts. away from a good radar cross section or if we're too stable.
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TOR issued by LWX for Washington, MD and Allegany, MD and hampshire/hardy, wv
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Garrett County dropped from the tornado watch
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SPC stays ENH at the 4pm update.
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IMO, south of US 50 to I-66 has the best tornado potential. More sustained pockets of sun and therefore the chance that something gets rooted on the surface instability.
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LWX sending up special 18z raob.
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SPC issues TORNADO WATCH until 03:00 UTC 11/01/19 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0687.html
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If hatching is introduced then we go MOD. We're at the highest for ENH right now without going MOD.
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Sun and some legit pockets of blue sky peeking out in Baltimore County.
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SPC issues TORNADO WATCH until 04:00 UTC 11/01/19
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Mid level cloud deck is really clearing out all the way up to Cumberland now.
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Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us......
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Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps.
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95% chance of a WW: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md2129.html
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Just warnings issued by LWX
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Over/under on TORs today? I say 5.
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Trick or Treating won't be impacted if society weren't a bunch of snowflakes that cancel at the first cloud.
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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It's buried in a disorganized website that needs a UI overhaul.
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I win the computer game.
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Millersville University runs their tweaked in house WRF and it's a nice alternative for us here http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wrf/wrf.php
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It appears the NAM and Euro have been showing the line working east of I-81 after 00z for several consecutive runs.
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It's going to be very close. Best option is either a 2 hours delay or have this thing blast through at 4 or 5 pm
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00z CAMS yield Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) of 2 - 5 in advance of the line and generally clear us out of junk precip. In fact, the CAMS try to really clear us out and get some quick sun in from 3 - 5 pm. It's going to be an active weather day tomorrow for sure.
