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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    It's probably not happening today...the wedge is going to win today. Mt. Holly's AFD supposes the clearing might work to Philly today. If it get to Wilmington I'll be surprised. You can see the low clouds just sitting there and being reinforced by flow off the ocean along US 50 from PG County east.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Gonna need to clear out ASAP if we want any chance at something today. Satellite reallly has the wedge holding firm.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Those are pretty silly parameters. Don't know why people use them.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Link?
  5. Eskimo Joe
    That's a chronic issue with public and private schools nationwide. It's a topic that's frequently discussed at EM meetings and conferences about getting schools to take natural hazards seriously. They're so focused on school shootings.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    2nd tornado in the watch box, thus verifying it. SPC is batting perfect on the red boxes in our area so far this year.
  7. Eskimo Joe
  8. Eskimo Joe
    M53 mph IAD
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Best risk for a good storm is probably east of I-95 though.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Red Box going out.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Latest meso analysis shows were primed for a tornado risk this afternoon.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    First SVR coming out for CHO
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Radar popping quick
  14. Eskimo Joe
    ENH is for the 30% wind...tornado and hail remain the same.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Warm front looks pretty potent...leaning 60/40 on tornado watch especially if we manage more sun.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    That was a great cell to watch. I noticed that about 2 or 3 frames before the first TOR was issued there was an uptick in CG and the tops shot over 30kft. I know there's some research either at SPC or one of the bigger met. universities into the possible correlation for CG frequency and when a storm goes severe. I would imagine this event would probably qualify for study in that area.
  17. Eskimo Joe
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Last Sunday was probably the event of the spring theres nothing promising on long range.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Tornado and Flash Flood watches canceled.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Mid Atlantic Severe FTL
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Several tornado warnings in NC where the sun came out. Good to see breaks occurring on visible satellite starting even up towards the panhandle of WV. Looks like the line is starting to form along the spine of the Appalachian Mts.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN TENNESSEE, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. ALOFT, CLOSED LOW IS NEAR MEMPHIS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT, SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR PITTSBURGH, PUSHING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO MIGRATE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN RELATIVELY BENIGN, WITH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY THANKS TO THE MORNING CLOUDS KEEPING SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS FAR AS WE KNOW AS OF THIS WRITING. THUS, IT APPEARS THE FIRST ROUND IS MORE OF A PRIMER, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TIME FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH FOR A BIT AFTER IT PASS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN LINE, CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND 850 MB WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS, ANY SUN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO ENHANCES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THUS, TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 AM. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SEEMS TO SHIFT TOWARDS MORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS, A TORNADO COULD STILL NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT. AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE 50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Satellite and surface obs in SW VA and western NC show the airmass recovering back into the lower to mid 70s. If that materializes further northeast into the greater DC and Baltimore area later this afternoon that could bode well for a decent line of storm.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Looking behind this initial batch of precip, it appears that some breaks in the clouds are occuring across NC and VA. We're going to need to clear out and get some additional sunshine before the main line works its way through to realize any potential for Round #2 this evening.
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