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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Use NAM MOS and HRRR together and you knew when the flip from SN -> IP -> RA would occur 90% of the time. That combination consistently schooled the GFS and Euro inside 30 hrs.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR puts a legit bow through Frederick/Loudoun/Montgomery/Carroll counties right at sunset.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?
  4. Eskimo Joe
    The Canadian tries to paint a 2" - 3.5" stripe of rainfall right along Mason-Dixon tomorrow afternoon. South of I-70 is less than an inch.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    That's a recipe for someone to get soaked.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR lights up NOVA with 3" - 5" of rain tomorrow
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Question for the mets/long range folks. When would we expect to see such a large/powerful El Nino begin to couple with the atmosphere? Wouldn't that yield more precipitation events in this neck of the wood by now since it's so robust?
  8. Eskimo Joe
    12z HRRR had a general 1" - 2" regionwide, with a narrow strip of 3" - 4" near Laurel.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Just keep it hot and humid until Sept 12th, when I get back from the beach. Then we can cool off for good.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    They're all in Morgan Run on the trees
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Getting all you snow in 24 hours and have it melt off in two days would be heart breaking.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    There was one winter recently that JB went warm and snowless. That was a sign you knew something bad was coming because not even JB could find a path to victory.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Shocker
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. There are numerous mesoscale boundaries at play in Maryland. Monday's setup also had additional difficulties from the AM convection laying down race tracks right over Baltimore. The TBWI and TADW picked up on those which were being overshot by Dover and Sterling radars.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    The video from Hopkins Bayview and the TBWI radar was rather convincing. QLCS environment + bay/harbor boundary was a perfect setup for spin ups.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Waiting on LWX to hoist the watches. Not sure what they're waiting on at this point. Model guidance is near perfect!
  17. Eskimo Joe
    That's awesome. Definitely something worth posting from UMD Science on the socials.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Did any of the mesonet sites capture a dip in solar radiation?
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Let's save that for Dec 20th - Feb 10th. I'm all for a warm November then we can flip just in time for Christmas and enjoy a nice snowfall for the holidays.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Nice.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Two observations: 1.) If there was more DCAPE, the wind reports from Berkley Springs, WV to just north of Annapolis would've been more impressive. Entirely possible that some 70-80 mph gusts would've even been capture on the Maryland mesonet. The Thurmont, Lisbon, and Clarksville sites were hit smack center by that northern cell. 2.) The lightning yesterday was impressive in my neck of the woods. Several positive lightning strikes that were quite brilliant to witness.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    This probably will get classified as a derecho. Incredible stuff to witness today. One of the higher end wind events I've seen.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    The morning convection removed any chances for severe weather in these parts. As SPC and @Kmlwxsaid, the atmosphere is largely capped and void of any meaningful surface instability.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Obvious derecho ongoing in northern Illinois. Multiple 80mph+ wind gusts.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Historically, we do not have multiple severe weather days in these parts. The radar trends in the Ohio Valley are not encouraging for those east of the Potomac River later today.
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