Eskimo Joe

Looks like we'll get a special 18z RAOB from IAD.

@wxmeddler and I were thinking the same thing. Looks like the site got clipped.

Almost midnight and the air temperatures are 80 to 83 degrees on lower and central Delmarva. Summer is definitely here.

I could see a late morning upgrade to an ENH risk from I-66 north for a 30% wind. Timing is everything in these parts, if that front lags then it's going to come down to luck on who gets a decent storm. Seems like we flip to real summer after this frontal passage.

^Ridgley mesonet station gusted to M51 mph. Just north of that little mesolow or ball of whatever that is.

Plenty of 75° to 77° dewpoints east of I-95 today.

Agreed. I'm skeptical of us hitting 100° during this stretch.

Woke up to 70 degree and humid. Summer has arrived.

Healthy elevated convection right now.

Euro/EPS has a known heat bias in the mid range. We need a lot to go right to hit 100 degrees or better namely: Low temps at or above 80 degrees. Little to no cloud cover Minimal mixing

Some peeks of blue sky in Gaithersburg.

Finally seeing some lee side clearing in Virginia. Probably too late for Baltimore metro and points east, but still glad to see some blue sky trying to get in here.

If we get sun, then today has all the makings of a sneaky tornado threat along the I-81 to US 15 corridor.

Well get plenty of it starting tomorrow afternoon. Soon, people will beg for a cool, cloudy day.

Ta Da!

Euro/EPS mid range heat bias seems to be kicking in, but to see the GFS/GEFS trying to edge into the upper 90s make me wonder if we just flip the switch to the oven for the rest of the summer?

Starting to see this on radar. Wonder if it's southeast flow interacting with Parrs Ridge?

Put a bunch of perennials in this afternoon to cap off a growing flower garden. Really could use a steady, soaking rain overnight.

Doubt it.

Appalachia stole all the rain. Some of the pictures and videos coming out of there are impressive. Honestly surprised it wasn't a Moderate Risk of flooding.

Waldorf mesonet site almost an inch of rain in under an hour. The 2-inch and 4-inch soil moisture values aren't climbing, therefore it's likely all running off.

Right now I would favor the "classic" microbursty line of storms. This is not a knock at SPC by any means, but I do not trust any severe weather forecast beyond D3 in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. We simply have too many mesoscale features that can muck up a forecast. My favorite research papers for this part of the country are below, and all reference the issues that numerical weather prediction has in this part of the world. Highly worth the read: Guastini, Corey T. and Bosart, Lance F., 2016, "Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments" Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 4, pp 1363, 1520-0493, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml Vaughan, Matthew T., Tang, Brian H., and Bosart, Lance F., 2017, "Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 32, No. 5, pp 1903, 1520-0434, doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0044.1 Banacos, P. C., and M. L. Ekster, 2010: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1082–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1. Lombardo, K. A., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 940–956, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00002.1.

Our best derechos come with a stout EML, high pressure centered from Kentucky SE to Bermuda, and antecedent surface temps at or above 95°. We appear to have none of those in place.

Only thing worse than a Day 2 Moderate is a D5 15%

Nice