Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Anything outside of HR 60 to 90 just treat with skepticism.
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GEFS has been trending the right way with this first cool shot. Fingers crossed this is a sign of things to come?
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@WxUSAF would like this: Ridging in Alaska Ridging in Greenland NW flow all the way back to the North Pole Stressed polar vortex
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Will be interesting to see if it extends this cool punch by a few days next week. Euro has been trying to flush it in and out in about 36 - 48 hours.
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Thoughts on this from anyone? Perhaps there is now a Euro mid-range high QPF/warmth bias that erodes as we close on events this winter?
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A bit of mixing at the Westminster mesonet site and the RH already tanking into the mid 30s. Might be a sneaky wildfire risk closer to the metros.
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I don't blame any TV or social media met for going average/above average in temps for winter. Since 2016, we've been stuck in a long term cycle of above normal temps during winter. Last year was the first real exception.
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Watch DCA not freeze until like December 30th or something
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Most likely reporting hail as snow. It's a dumb rule, but it's frozen so it count, IIRC.
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Once again, @WxUSAF is absolutely correct to be concerned about "wasting patterns", but it's somewhat comforting to see things slowly trending cooler as we near our first shot of late autumn weather. Not only more expansive cold, but better negative anamolies. EDIT: Euro also showing this too!
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Record negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD). Yay for us?
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Sorry for your loss.
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Liberty Reservoir was steaming this morning as I drove over it.
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BWI: 12.0 DCA: 9.0 IAD: 12.0 RIC: 5.0 SBY: 7.0 EDIT: I revised everything downward. We've been in a 10 year unfavorable PDO and it's La Nina.
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Perfectly fine with that. Will be interesting to see a few things: 1.) How much punch these zonal flow setups have this month. Do we stay relatively close to normal, or are we torching into the upper 70s? 2.) When the pattern does flip back, is it delayed? Another can kick winter? Will there be a decent storm, etc.?
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While I understand that we do not want to have the perfect pattern in November, I'm glad that we do not appear to be staring down the barrel of a wall-to-wall Pacific Puke™ fest. If I recall correctly, @Rainshadow had posted some stats in the past about the implications of mild to torch Novembers vs. average to below average November temperatures. Equally encouraging is to see the CFS and CANSIPS trying for at least climo temps for winter.
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Wow. Is there any plan to fix this?
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How about the week of 12/12?
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Man if we hit climo snow regionwide with a -1 to -2 temp departure, I think that'd be solid.
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I got nothing. Let's go!
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It's time to start fretting over pumpkin pie, Black Friday and first flakes. Let's go!
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