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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    WRT to the 12/16 system, it appears that all 18z Euro ensembles are all snow for the CTP CWA.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Only 1 member of the 18z GEFS is rain NW of I-95. Everything else is frozen, another colder tick.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    12z op Euro cooks up another storm in the 12/18 timeframe, tries to get another around 12/24.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    I vote no storm thread until at least 12z Monday.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Per the 12z op Euro, everybody wins on the 12/16 storm. Take any snowmap and cut the amounts in half.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    12zz euro isn't terrible it seems if you're along or NW of I-95.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    HR129 the coastal is taking over so that should stop any southerly winds.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    12z OP Euro @ HR120, much stronger CAD signature. Looks like it's also colder in Quebec so the source region is decent. At the very least, this is not a step back. Not focusing on the surface right now, I'm looking at 500/850.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yea. At the least, it's not a step back from 00z.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    So far, the 12z Euro looks better for the 12/16 event at 500mb. Better confluence, and western ridge.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Upper carroll county/baltimore county folks probably score a slushy inch or two on Monday per the 12z Euro. Catoctins look good too.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    High in Canada looks better placed through HR78. That would put it in a better place for the 12/16 event it seems.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    I'm on instantweathermaps, HR48 on the 12z op Euro and the western ridge appears a bit sharper.
  14. Eskimo Joe
  15. Eskimo Joe
  16. Eskimo Joe
    I'm not more interested to see if the Euro gives the Canadian high a better position and kills the Ohio Valley low faster. That's all I want to see.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    12/5/02 storm summary for those wondering: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html
  18. Eskimo Joe
    No. The confluence isn't strong enough to blow this into the Carolinas.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Big takeaway from the 12z GEFS is that only 2 members show a miss, and about 7 show mostly rain. Just about every other run is a nice hit from I-95 NW. Even Baltimore City and DCA get accumulating snow. A good shift overal. Hope the UKMET and Euro agree.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS mean has all of the CTP CWA below freezing for the 12/16 event. It's a clear step in the right direction.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Yes, 12z op Canadian is the ideal track. It should be viewed as the best case scenario for this event and unfortunately probably not verify.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    To my eye, it does 3 things....kills the primary quicker, coastal gets cracking sooner, AND high pressure is stronger and better placed.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS trending colder for everyone in C. PA. So far, the 12z suite is in the right direction.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    12z CMC is a flush hit for everyone.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    WRT the 12/16 event, the 12z OPs GFS would get everyone on the board. It's colder, and has the antecedent high over Canada in a better position.
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