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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    So far it appears as though the Euro EPS is the "worst" case scenario for snow lovers, the op Euro/UKMET/ICON/GFS/GEFS in the middle, the CMC/GGEM is the best.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Yea the 12z EPS isnt great for anyone east of I81. Hope this doesn't shift further west.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Even if you cut the euro snow totals in half, it's a legit warning criteria event.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    12z OP Euro is nice. Nothing to worry about.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Euro is not bad from I95 and points north and west. Even DC and Baltimore City proper aren't terrible. Just a tick colder and the big cities win.
  6. Eskimo Joe
  7. Eskimo Joe
    12z OP GFS is money for Wed. Can't post images because I'm mobile, but it's good for you all. Solid warning event.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Oh yea, this is might be a good run.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    So far on the 12z OP GFS, the confluence to our north looks a touch better and the high in Quebec looks a tad better.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Never trust the 10:1 snow maps unless the whole column stays below -7. Otherwise, expect 2"-4" and be happy with what you get. It's just part of the climo of this area.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, 12z Tuesday suite is my go/no go for Wednesday. By then the Monday event is gone and we'll know for sure.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Naw. It's an early season event and I'm expecting mixing at my house. You're all looking pretty good in Central PA. We're in the Euro's wheelhouse now and it's still solid. If this holds through 00z Monday runs we are probably good.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    It's times like this that I'm glad I live above 600 feet in elevation. This. Wouldn't be shocked to see some last minute bump one way or the other Tuesday morning once the Monday event clears.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    ICON appears to be a big hit for @HighStakes, @losetoa6, @psuhoffman, and @mappy, highly elevation dependent.
  15. Eskimo Joe
  16. Eskimo Joe
    ARW...Always Really Wet NMM...Not Much Moisture
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Yea. As I was saying in the mid/long range thread in the MA forum, even at this time last year it was painfully clear that we were staring down the barrel of a shut out through mid January.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    I've been burned too many times outside of Jan/early Feb. I'm only expecting for an inch or two down here in NW Baltimore County and hope that we boom. It would be reallly nice to see something like 3" - 5" on the Christmas decorations.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Standard caveats apply here: we're HR100+, it's early season, etc. But y'all are looking good.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    WRT to the 12/16 system, it appears that all 18z Euro ensembles are all snow for the CTP CWA.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Only 1 member of the 18z GEFS is rain NW of I-95. Everything else is frozen, another colder tick.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    12z op Euro cooks up another storm in the 12/18 timeframe, tries to get another around 12/24.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    I vote no storm thread until at least 12z Monday.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Per the 12z op Euro, everybody wins on the 12/16 storm. Take any snowmap and cut the amounts in half.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    12zz euro isn't terrible it seems if you're along or NW of I-95.
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