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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Miller Bust. Just jump and get it over with. This isn't out winter.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Even the northern crew struggles to hit warning criteria snowfall on this run of the GFS. We better hope the GEPS and the Euro look better.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    GFS is nothing to write home about south of I-70. Miller Bust.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Folks, if the primary ends up further north then we get more warm air and a later development on the coastal. The ICON is not a good look.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Primary on the ICON goes into Ohio, not the greatest. We want it to die in Kentucky.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Does the GFS sh*t the bed again (I think so) or do we step to the Euro?
  7. Eskimo Joe
    I'm more worried about a strung out whiff, or late transfer that misses up. That's more likely than a wound up inland solution.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Actually I don't think so. Only a handful of the EPS members are doing that. No GEPS, or other operational model is doing that.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Folks the ENS mean surface temps are likely too high because there are some ridiculously wound up interior coastal lows.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    You are incorrect.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Yes.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Wouldn't be worth your time. the 06 and 18z Euro only go out to HR 144 on the ENS and it wouldn't show a picture of the entire storm.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    What's important is that it's a closed 500mb low to so this thing won't be blasting through like a rocket.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Yea I noticed that. The 500 heights were a bit better across Idaho as the energy transversed the midwest. That's big. It the west coast ridge starts washing out then our goose is cooked. So far I don't see that happening.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    If I had to be critical, I'd like to see the western ridge be further displayed to the west and the primary low close off at 500mb a few hours earlier and go a bit more negative.
  16. Eskimo Joe
  17. Eskimo Joe
    I'd be feeling decent between I-66 and PA Route 30 for a warning level event right now. Set your expectations low since this is a Miller B in a La Nina.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    The 500mb progression on the 18z Euro is textbook for a warning level event at DCA, IAD, and BWI.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Western ridge is sharper on the 18z Euro through HR 90. A good sign.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    East of I-95 would've busted low had the CCB not been so beefy. I remember the justified gnashing of teeth for the Annapolis and St. Mary's crew on Saturday when the sun was poking out while the usual crew was jackpotting.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    We've had the rug pulled out from under us so many times that it's wise to under forecast snow. Especially outside of the mountains.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    GFS is a step in the right direction both aloft and at the surface. Nothing earth shattering but it's good to see.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    18z ICON has snow starting early afternoon Sunday.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    10 years ago today:
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Yea that's a big thing to watch. We want the primary up into Kentucky, then die off and quickly transfer energy to the coast.
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