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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Yea. At the least, it's not a step back from 00z.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    So far, the 12z Euro looks better for the 12/16 event at 500mb. Better confluence, and western ridge.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Upper carroll county/baltimore county folks probably score a slushy inch or two on Monday per the 12z Euro. Catoctins look good too.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    High in Canada looks better placed through HR78. That would put it in a better place for the 12/16 event it seems.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    I'm on instantweathermaps, HR48 on the 12z op Euro and the western ridge appears a bit sharper.
  6. Eskimo Joe
  7. Eskimo Joe
  8. Eskimo Joe
    I'm not more interested to see if the Euro gives the Canadian high a better position and kills the Ohio Valley low faster. That's all I want to see.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    12/5/02 storm summary for those wondering: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html
  10. Eskimo Joe
    No. The confluence isn't strong enough to blow this into the Carolinas.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Big takeaway from the 12z GEFS is that only 2 members show a miss, and about 7 show mostly rain. Just about every other run is a nice hit from I-95 NW. Even Baltimore City and DCA get accumulating snow. A good shift overal. Hope the UKMET and Euro agree.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS mean has all of the CTP CWA below freezing for the 12/16 event. It's a clear step in the right direction.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Yes, 12z op Canadian is the ideal track. It should be viewed as the best case scenario for this event and unfortunately probably not verify.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    To my eye, it does 3 things....kills the primary quicker, coastal gets cracking sooner, AND high pressure is stronger and better placed.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS trending colder for everyone in C. PA. So far, the 12z suite is in the right direction.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    12z CMC is a flush hit for everyone.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    WRT the 12/16 event, the 12z OPs GFS would get everyone on the board. It's colder, and has the antecedent high over Canada in a better position.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    No.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. We're getting into the Euro's wheelhouse. If it trends towards the GFS through Sunday, then man we might have some hope. FWIW, doesn't look like the GFS is warm through Christmas so this snow might stick around for a bit.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    12z OPS GFS kills the primary low in Tennessee this round. By HR120 the coastal low is popping off Hatteras. Also has a 1034mb high in Quebec instead of Newfoundland. This is a good shift. Hope the GEFS moves this way too. Onto the 12z Euro.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    To my eye, the 12z GFS OP is a good run for everyone N&W of I-95 for the 12/16 storm. Legit advisory criteria immediate I-95 and possible warning event for the the usual jackpot spots.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    (on ncep site) At HR 114, 850s are -6 to -10 N&W of US 15. 0 degree isotherm down the RIC.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    12z OPS GFS looks colder at 850 through HR 104. Better CAD signature.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    What is the ICON, is it an American model that's operational or something still under DEV?
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Counterpoint...if we somehow don't get to 60 or even the mid 50s then it works out even better.
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