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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Hey all, just wanted to pop by and say it's now steady -SN in the NW Baltimore County. Looks like we're running a degree or two colder at least at the surface than forecast. The 06z 3k NAM doesn't appear to be handling the start time very well down there. It didn't move precip into Baltimore until about 1pm and we've already started. Just something worth noting for up your way.
  2. Finally -SN in Reisterstown. Was a few flakes then in about 5 min it was steady snow.
  3. Some good news, especially for the I-95 crew and the immediate low landers. Frederiskcburg and Louisa, VA were -RA at the start but once the heavier precip moved in they've not flipped to -SN. Even Quantico, which is right on the river, has -SN now so there might be a bit more 'boom' with the snow thanks to the earlier onset.
  4. DCA reporting -SN. College Parks latest METAR w/ 5SM visiblity would imply -SN as well but that station may not have a precip identification sensor.
  5. Camp David (KRSP) reporting -SN and 22/18. Man do I wish I lived in the Catoctins.
  6. As soon as it show up on the SPC mesoanalysis page.
  7. To really score a big boom, we gotta have the 850 low pop earlier somehow to cutoff the surge of warm air aloft.
  8. Gaithersburg (KGAI) reporting -SN and a Td of 22. Should help reinforce the wedge.
  9. If we can somehow pop the 850 low a few hours earlier and a bit east this could still work out...it's absolutely a long shot and probably won't happen but one can wish.
  10. Latest WPC surface map. Worth following this account if you have Twitter...they're a WPC met:
  11. This definitely seems to be coming in earlier than forecast.
  12. Fredericksburg and Stafford AWOS are reporting -SN
  13. Orange, VA ASOS (K0MH) is reporting -SN. Good to see the column can support snow at the onset that far south.
  14. SPC is your best site. Here are the RAOBS: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
  15. Just checked the 12z RAOB out of IAD. There appears to be a bit of a warm nose somewhere around 800 mb, but there's a bit of dry air above and below it. I wonder if the dry air would allow precip to cool the column more effectively and maybe offset that. It would have big implications for snow totals, especially down towards the cities if we can really thump for a few hours as SN or even +SN.
  16. Per the SPC mesoanalysis, the coastal has popped offshore of South Carolina at 1012 mb.
  17. Yea, SPC's HREF (experimental or operational?) seemed to initialize the Quebec high better than most and is, as a result, colder down through I-95 and maybe even into Annapolis.
  18. Either Valentine's Day 2007 or the one in March...I got 5" of sleet in Philly from the March storm.
  19. A lot of meso models are hammering I-70 up into south central PA with the WAA snow tomorrow. There's some impressive 850-700 mb forcing with that.
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