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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. SPC mesoanalysis update shows ~1,000 - 1,500 SBCAPE ahead of that line approaching I-81. Helicity getting a bit better too.
  2. Big uptick in lighting with activity west of I-81. Probably getting into better instability.
  3. Tornado Warning coming out for Stafford and Prince William county.
  4. Circulation really looking good on the Howard County cell. Tightening up and even visible on the 1.3° scan.
  5. Circulation S of Paw Paw looking better...might get a TOR with it here shortly.
  6. TOR going out for Baltimore and Howard counties.
  7. wow that's a solid couplet...gonna need a TOR shortly.
  8. Flood Warning for Montgomery/DC until 5:00 pm: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=44590472
  9. Given the environment, I suspect LWX will tag most of their SVRs that way.
  10. It's entirely possible. The ConvT was 70 IIRC on the Blacksburg, VA 12z RAOB. and Front Royal & Winchester just broke into the 70s.
  11. Per SPC meso page, decent uptick in the 0-1km helicity across NOVA and WV.
  12. Sun trying to come out here. Temp up to 69 degrees.
  13. Just like that https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=143&yr=2020
  14. SPC issues Tornado Watch until 22:00 UTC. WCN going outs shortly.
  15. Out of nowhere there's a bit of training rains setting up from Potomac, MD into Sykesville.
  16. Yea we might scrape out a legit slight risk thingy here. Despite rain, temp now 68/65 in Gaithersburg.
  17. Cell just NW of Moorefield, WV is trying to pin up a bit and the SVR warned cell in WV is looking a tad better on radar. Keep in mind that's in the land of minimal radar data.
  18. Per SPC, supercell composite now a 4 along and west of the Potomac Rivier up through HGR back down to I-81. SBCAPE pushing ~750 at DCA.
  19. LWX's AM disco talks about a double temp inversion which capped things up. It's literally always something stupid when it comes to severe wx or snow in these parts.
  20. Sky starting to brighten up here. Winds now steady out of the SW ~10 mph and temps up to 67 degrees in Gaithersburg.
  21. There's actually a nice little wedge of clearing. It might be enough for a couple of good cells.
  22. 80% chance of one by 16z per the text: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0381.html
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