Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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My cutoff has always been HR60.
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^man knock like 2 degrees off that and everyone wins. We are so close to a regionwide victory.
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Agreed
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No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event.
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18z EPS is much improved compared to 12z EPS.
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Okay that's a bit aggressive.
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IMO, there are negligible changes between the 18z OP Euro at HR90 and the 12z OP Euro at the same timeframe.
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12z op GFS at has a monster 200 mb jetstream that allow the surface low to really ventilate and torque west. The 00z/06z/12z did not have a feature as pronounced. Wonder if that's a blip or a sign of something.
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I just want the grass covered. That's all I'm asking. A 4" - 6" event.
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18z OP GFS cuts the coastal low into Point Lookout...that's really far west. Wonder what the ensembles will say. If they're all west we probably have a problem.
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IMO, 18z OP GFS trended in the wrong direction back to US 15. Mix line gets even past @mappy.
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Tony Pann on WBAL going full weenie on social media.
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Thank you so much for your continued analysis in this forum from afar. It's always appreciated.
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So far it appears as though the Euro EPS is the "worst" case scenario for snow lovers, the op Euro/UKMET/ICON/GFS/GEFS in the middle, the CMC/GGEM is the best.
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Yea the 12z EPS isnt great for anyone east of I81. Hope this doesn't shift further west.
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Even if you cut the euro snow totals in half, it's a legit warning criteria event.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z OP Euro is nice. Nothing to worry about. -
Euro is not bad from I95 and points north and west. Even DC and Baltimore City proper aren't terrible. Just a tick colder and the big cities win.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z OP GFS is money for Wed. Can't post images because I'm mobile, but it's good for you all. Solid warning event. -
Oh yea, this is might be a good run.
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So far on the 12z OP GFS, the confluence to our north looks a touch better and the high in Quebec looks a tad better.
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Never trust the 10:1 snow maps unless the whole column stays below -7. Otherwise, expect 2"-4" and be happy with what you get. It's just part of the climo of this area.
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Yea, 12z Tuesday suite is my go/no go for Wednesday. By then the Monday event is gone and we'll know for sure.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Naw. It's an early season event and I'm expecting mixing at my house. You're all looking pretty good in Central PA. We're in the Euro's wheelhouse now and it's still solid. If this holds through 00z Monday runs we are probably good.
