Eskimo Joe

NAMs are really honking about big lift at 700mb. Would lover to see what a forecast sounding looks like for Annapolis Sunday around 10:00 am. If we can maximize the lift in the DGZ . . .

NAM is nice. Everyone gets low end warning criteria event on a weekend.

Winter Storm Watch coming for most of LWX CWA. EDIT:

Yum:

Mt. Holly just issued winter storm watches. Probably means LWX is up next: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=53872551

Yup. It's entirely possible that we see a more uniform snowfall map in the end because a) northern areas have colder temps to counteract the lower precip and b) lower elevation areas have more precip to overcome the more marginal temps.

I'd always take temps and elevation.

Nice

The Sperry Piltz Ice Accretion Index leverages wind and ice accretion to measure impacts. I'm going to cut the forecasted amount in half, which would mean an Ice Damage Index of at least a 1. However, a year or two ago we had this ice event in upper Montgomery County where we got between 0.3" and 0.5" ice with almost no wind and it was impressive. A lot of trees snapping in two, event the hardwoods, which caused big problems to the power grid. Some places were out for 3 days and that was for the Allegheny Power service area which does a good job at tree trimming. Something like what's being advertised there would be probably a 2 or 3.

Even if you cut that by 50% it's substantial.

Euro gets snow in prior to sunrise. Once it starts, not let up...good to see.

I actually think you're better positioned than I am for this event.

Unpopular opinion: The winners in this event are those who get under this band of good snow. Inside that band, you jackpot and push 5" - 9"...outside of that band it's going to be a more general 2"-4" event.

Yes. HREF always seems to underdo snow. The fact that it's painting 4-6" is impressive, standard regional disclaimer about microclimates apply.

The canadian mimics the NAMs intense 700mb frontogenetic forcing all the way up into Long Island.

GFS would be a solid advisory level event for everyone, all the better that it's on a weekend so we can all enjoy it!

NAM and RGEM would imply low end warning criteria snow for everyone east of I-81.

Compare that to Maine, where they had a 56:1 event last night.

Taking a look at the 500mb maps of the 18z GFS, we see sub 500dm heights settle over Pennsylvania just in time for Valentine's Day. Yes please.

HM barking