As we move into a more favorable time for severe weather, I'd like to pass along some personal and professional resources for severe weather that I have found useful over the years.
First, the professional resources:
The Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Rich Thompson gave a nine part series on tornado forecasting some years ago at the University of Oklahoma. It was recorded and uploaded on YouTube and has significantly expanded my knowledge of tornado forecasting and severe weather in general. Each video is about one hour long. Link: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLxeAIQgAiFqvsaAx79xN3gBjc8baIiWMn&si=O2fmocu33d95yGPd
You will hear a lot about Elevated Mixing Layer (EML) over the coming months. There is a great research paper regarding the role of EMLs and northeast severe weather. While we are technically in the Mid Atlantic, the underlying fundamentals discussed in the paper are great for improving your knowledge. Link: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/4/2010waf2222363_1.xml
Each year, there are questions about the SPC probabilistic outlooks. This link does a great job cross explaining the outlook and cross walking the percentages and the corresponding categories. Link: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html
Here is a great research paper focused on the SPCs probabilistic verification of their outlooks: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/33/1/waf-d-17-0104_1.xml
Some helpful links for real time observations:
Delaware mesonet: https://www.deos.udel.edu/
Maryland mesonet: https://mesonet.umd.edu/
Keystone (Pennsylvania) mesonet: https://keystone-mesonet.org/
Second, some personal observations:
There are numerous mesoscale boundaries across the area. They play a unique role in forming and disrupting convection and wreck havoc on forecasting.
The wedge always wins, until it doesn't.
If we have a steady south-southwest wind, that seems to be better are eroding the wedge quicker.
Getting a Day 2 Moderate Risk is a jinx.
Events seem to set up further south at the last minute. See June 13, 2013. Day 1 Moderate Risk for DC that ended up in North Carolina.
I have found that it is better to be level headed and expect a bust. There are so many small scale features that aren't resolved until 4 to 8 hours prior to the event.
Downsloping kills events, but if you have either really cold temps aloft or better yet, a stout EML, then we can all win. Learn to look for these features.
During large outbreaks, look to western North Carolina for what's coming our way. That's usually 4 to 6 hours from DC metro.
I hope this helps and good luck to everyone this year.
