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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.
  2. Eskimo Joe
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I'm kind of in the same boat as you. Still, we've seen what marginal surface instability and good dynamics can do in these parts.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    SPC maintains the 15% for D4 (Thursday) and mentions the usual fail potential alleys: clouds, timing, etc. That being said, any time you get a decent jet just to our north and a reasonably hot/humid airmass...interesting things can happen.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Yea definitely looks like a tornado somewhere between Libertytown and New Windsor:
  6. Eskimo Joe
    That cell in Libertytown/Walkersville appears to have been legit. Some reports of structure damage. . .maybe a tornado?
  7. Eskimo Joe
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting radar signature just NW of Sykesville, MD
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Constant lightning just to my west in Reisterstown. Cats army crawled down to the basement.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Impressive LSR out of Grafton, WV for that western line "Sustained 35 mph for 5 minutes with gusts to 62 mph."
  11. Eskimo Joe
    There's gotta be something nearby. That cell in York County went nuts in like 3 frames.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting little cell near Walkersville in Frederick County.
  13. Eskimo Joe
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Atmosphere isn't overturned between I-81 and I-95 and there's a couple of boundaries floating around. Might be in store for at least some elevated convection?
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Some cells firing up along the western slopes of Catoctin Mts.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    M1.25" hail Ripley, MD according to the LSR just reported by Sterling!
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Two areas of interest locally: 1.) Bay press pressed up somewhere between US 29 and I-95 west of the bay. 2.) Looks like a decent outflow boundary settling along I-66. Wonder if these serve as a focus for later in the evening?
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Surprised there isn't a downstream tornado watch for at least northern PA.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Hahaha Yinzer Alley go brrrrr
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Wow
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Yea buddy!
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a Delmarva special today
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Ah that day was legit. I remember watching the radar and was quite impressed. That event is proof positive we can get several major tornadoes on the same day in the northeast and mid atlantic.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    You mean June 1, 2012? The moderate risk day that almost went full gang busters?
  25. Eskimo Joe
    With so many of the 12z western ROABs missing, I wonder if it's going to be a summer of short term model guidance beating mid range?
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