Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Looks like LWX is going with likely pops starting Sunday now.
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You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html
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I wouldn't bet on it.
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The 500 and 850 low pass is textbook for a solid warning criteria snowfall for IAD, DCA, and BWI. Beautiful.
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I'll take the 12z Euro in a skinny minute. Temps don't appear to be an issue and the CCB is still there.
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Seems that only 3/20 of the Canadian ensembles are total whiffs. Everything else looks like decent.
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This is just me musing between models runs, but at D3 I'd rather worry more about something going a bit south of me than the mix line.
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On this panel, you can clearly see the handoff to the coastal low is well underway by looking at the wind barbs. SE winds should flips to E then NE in the following panels.
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Yes. It's better.
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Yup that. Sorry...autocorrect. I went back and edited me post.
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Does anybody happen to have the GEFS mean snowfall? EDIT: meant to say GEFS...autocorrect
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Looks better compared to it's 00z / 06z counterparts.
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It appears to me that everyone along and north of I-66 wins on the 12z CMC. Definitely in the Euro camp and not the GFS.
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It's so close to a win.
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The GFS just keeps it off the MD coast through Monday night...pretty sizable CCB. Man if the primary would just die early and transfer clean this would be a huge hit for us all.
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So, if my eyes don't deceive me, the GFS actually tries to stall/retrograde the coastal low from HR 105 to HR 111 from off Atlantic City back towards Ocean City, MD. Keeps snow for everyone west of the bay through like 10:00 pm Monday.
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GFS tries to save everyone from I-66 north on the backside. Would be another round of accumulating snow from DCA north Monday midday into the evening.
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GFS actually drives the primary low up into SW Pennsylvania. After a promising start, it gets ugly for everyone.
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The front end thump looks better, but the GFS still holds on to the primary low in the end. After the WAA precip it's not a good run for snow lovers.
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12z GFS appears to be working towards the Euro/CMC/NAM camp WRT to the WAA thump. Looks like everyone north of EZF to St. Mary's does better.
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Former SPC met living in MD. This is the National Blend of Models (NBM) probability of 6" or more.
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It should also be noted the Euro/NAM have a stronger high in Canada versus the GFS. This disparity has been happening since D6.
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Looks like the 06z GEPS gets the CCB back all the way to I-66 in Virginia now. Last night it was I-70 in Maryland.
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CC: @ers-wxman1
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Yup. I remember waking up in Philly on the day of the event. It was supposed to start at like 3:00 pm but it was 7:00 am and light snow was already falling.
