Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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12z suite was solid overall from I-66 north. Two days ago we were staring at a warm rain. Would like to see the NAM twins start going colder/wetter.
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Yup. This time last year we were chasing D15 phantom patter changes.
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WBAL's favorite model, the RPM, has EZF and even St. Mary's City starting as snow for a couple of hours. Definitely a colder tick across the board.
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@Bob Chill you're all snow on the 2nd wave. Warning level event for you.
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Will be interested to see what the EPS has. This is the last suites where I'd look at the ensembles.
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I don't think the 850s get above -2 north of I-70, unless I'm seeing something incorrectly.
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All of the globals now picking up on a flip back to snow on the backside. Really nice to see.
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Euro has a better CAD signature.
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HREF has been pretty good inside 36 hours this year.
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Saw a couple of posts about NAM MOS throwing surface temps up above 32 at DCA. It should be noted that it's been a few degrees too warm of late.
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Canadian is a sick run for DC north.
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Our cul de sac is almost exclusively elderly folks so my snowblower is welcome.
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This is the kind of storm where you wait to shovel until the very end so the ZR doesn't bond to the pavement.
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It appears as though the 12z CMC and GFS flip the western and northern suburbs back to a period of moderate snow on the backside.
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Yea it's a solid run.
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12z GFS implies near warning level snow for IAD and DCA before the flip. Haven't look close enough for BWI yet but it's a good run.
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12z GFS is better for the cities than the NAM.
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Updated LWX AFD:
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3k NAM brings another round of IP/ZR during the late afternoon and evening east of I-81. Would be another ice layer on top of whatever falls and at night.
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So far, it appears the NAMs are much faster than the rest of guidance. Interesting to see if this is a trend.
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Life in the DMV.
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NAMs would imply some frozen drizzle, light ZR in the evening on top of everything. I have my EMT test Thursday night so I'm hoping things trend worse so it can get knocked back to next Tuesday.
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Through HR54, the NAM definitely is better for I-95. Eventual flip to IP/ZR for DCA, but it's good to see more frozen.
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It appears the past 3 runs of the NAM have progressively, but slowly weakened the southerly winds at 700 mb, which would be a trend to the GFS.
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We've seen a drying and deamplification trend as we close in on events this year. Wonder if that happens this time.
