Eskimo Joe

IMO, Friday looks like the better setup for us. Wednesday is probably a dying complex that gets the highlands.

That's the thing. If the GFS and Euro get pumped, then you know it's good.

History shows that in these parts if the GFS and Euro aren't on board, at least to a certain extent, then it's just the NAM being the NAM.

On the plus side, it's good to see the complex / line being favored to go on the northern end of the subforum. Historically, these things dive further south at the last minute. Re-analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2013 events shows the meso guidance was too far north at HR 48+

Not really enthused with Wednesday. If you go back and look at all the the mid to higher range MCS / derecho events in the LWX CWA, they contained historically hot antecedent airmasses. That won't be the case this week. Unless there is a substantial cold pool or EML I would temper my expectations for this week.

Horrendous storm in Reisterstown. Going on near like 4 raindrops!

This is a must read paper about the role of EMLs and severe weather from DC north. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1

The 850 temps sampled on the 18z special RAOB ahead of the line occurred only 5 times before in recorded history at the IAD site. You could tell early in the day on the 12z ILN site that something big was about to happen because the EML was evident so early in the morning. That airmass advected ahead of the complex and sustained it over the mountain. Reanalysis of the event showed that every meso model that correctly modeled the EML successfully predicted the derecho making it to the coastline. If there's on big takeaway from that event, it was that correctly sampling, identifying and modeling EMLs in the Mid Atlantic will significantly increase the ability of forecasters to anticipate these events and provide timely IDSS to the appropriate officials.

I agree. June 2012 was an anomalous event. We had extreme temps and a stout EML.

8/15 referenced events have a DC hotspots and we are overdue for a derecho in these parts from a climo perspective.

Storms saw that watch box get extended into Baltimore and nope'd right up into PA.

Baltimore Metro left out. Kinda weird orientation of the WCN.

Looks like a cap or something between 800 - 900 mb...stuff tries to get up and then just collapses.

Looks like we're getting a blue box later today: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0758.html

It seems that for today, we need to look to northern WV and far western MD. Most of the meso models are targeting this spot around 3:00 pm. That seems to be the benchmark.

Today looks really unimpressive.

Hey that's a neato tool. Where can a poster find that on SPC's site?

Td is 71° in Reisterstown.

Bad news for tomatoes and squash and melons. It's shaping up to be a tough year in the garden.

where was this during the winter

Friday reeks of scattered wet microburst, warn-on-4-red-pixels storms.

We should get that warmth in here just in time for Christmas.

WPC 7 day QPF total is less than 1.5" regionwide.