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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Yea it's been pretty amazing how cool it's been. I don't think anyone outside of a poorly placed bank thermometer have hit 95° or higher so far.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    My lawn would welcome that.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Early 60s with no health issues.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    It never ceases to amaze me how unreliable the GFS is beyond D4. EDIT: spelling
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Welcome to the Old Line State. Last week there was a significant peaceful protest in front of the Bethesda library in the parking lot. People actually made a point to stand 6 feet apart and weak a mask and openly complained the police weren't following Gov. Hogan's orders. It was bizarre.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Soil temps finally cracked 74 degrees! Time for pumpkins.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    If this post is inappropriate for this thread please remove. This morning I found out that my best friend from college (he was the best man in my wedding, I in his), his wife and his mother all tested positive for COVID. His mother is now in hospice and went from healthy to on death's doorsteps in 3 days. This is a nefarious disease and the sooner we get a treatment protocol the better.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    GEFS and ENS don't get 500 heights above 585 through the 25th of June and dead tropics. This is quickly shaping up to be the year without a summer.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Woah the GFS caved to the Euro?
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Per weather.us, the Euro has <1.5" rain north of I-66 for all of next week. 99% chance GFS is smoking crack.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I haven't seen Euro guidance for rainfall. So far this spring and early summer it appears that numerical guidance has vastly over estimated rainfall in the medium term. We've had several instances where up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain was forecast and the area wound up with less than an inch. Until we're inside 24 hours, I'm largely ignoring the guidance.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Correct.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    GFS ENS is 5" which means the OP isn't on it's own, but I'd like to know if there's a place you can view Euro OP/ENS rainfall that is night behind a paywall.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I'll eat my hat if the GFS rainfall forecast even comes close to verifying on locations and amount. That would be a 500 year storm for these parts.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like it's time for DC to get their storm.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    3rd line racing out of NOVA.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Little bit of hook there SW of Damascus?
  18. Eskimo Joe
    45kt win core on 0.5 degree BV right where the tops are shooting up and lightning spiking. Might be seeing an SVR here shortly.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    PBZ just noted a TDS near Ohioville in their chatroom. Legit line is legit to our west!
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Another cluster working across the Potomac River...looks like more CG with this one.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    That line in OH could give some folks a decent line tomorrow. Even though it's going on 9pm a large chunk of the line is warned and still producing damage.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    21:06 Phoenix // 6240 blk Blenheim Rd // Lightning struck a house causing the chimney cap to explode and charged the house with smoke.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    It's 8pm, but SPC meso analysis has over 2,500 SBCAPE and LI's over 6. Impressive.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Solid little cell racing out of western Montgomery County. I can see lightning in the tower from New Windsor.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    GFS is a soaker through HR 252, but we've seen scenario play out all spring - it looks wet long range but then goes poof inside of HR 60.
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