There certainly is a risk for some wet microbursts today. Out Total Totals are pushing 50 and the low level lapse rates are pretty robust. Could see a few decent terrain based storms.
Cecil, Harford, and Dorchester counties in Maryland had rogue 500 year floods this week too. It's like the atmosphere just wants to dump rain in small areas and leave everyone else dry.
Yea the EPS and OP GFS is MCS/ climo for sure. Would be nice to bake for a few days, this summer has been too cold, but hey, maybe that's a sign we're gonna have some good blocking setting up this winter?
That actually happens a lot in these parts. In Taneytown the other month 4 acres of cut grass caught on fire because of spontaneous combustion while it lay drying in the field.
We have solid lapse rates, shear and instability. Even the mid level lapse rates aren't terrible and that's a chronic thing we have going against us in these parts. Don't think it's going to be a lot of aerial coverage, but those who get a storm could get clocked pretty well.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1323.html
I'm kinda of interested about the potential today.
EDIT: This has Delmarva jackpot written all over it.
SPC mesoanalysis shows a good bit of MLCAPE, low level lapse rates and maybe event a hint of a lee trough. Shear and mid level lapse rates are pretty terrible thought so the conditional wet microburst looks to be about it for today's risk.