Eskimo Joe

The surface will improve if we maintain that look upstairs.

Negative temp anomalies focused on the TN Valley. That's something @Stormchaserchuck1and @psuhoffmanare big on.

It's not an overreaction. We know winters are slipping away in these parts.

Maybe we need an outright +PDO to have any chance anymore?

Agreed. If we fail with this setup then we're probably cooked for any big storm in future winters.

If you're looking for discrete threats in the long range then you're barking up the wrong tree. This far out the ensembles are really the only thing that should warrant attention.

Looks like the Europeans are going to make the rest of the NWP community eat dust shortly:

If this happens then it would be a complete failure across the board for the reliable NWP (Euro, Canadian, GFS, NAEFS).

This is exactly what you want to see as the lead in for a warning level snowfall event for the majority of the subforum. If I had to be picky on this look, I would like to see the lobe of the polar vortex tilted a bit more on our side of the globe, closer to Hudson Bay than the Arctic Circle. If we get to New Year's Eve and we see this potential still there, and not stuck in the D14+ wonderland, then it might be cause for legit optimism.

Low of 10.1°. This is the third coldest morning I've experienced since moving back to Maryland in August of 2016. The record was 2° on Christmas Eve morning in 2022 after the big frontal passage.

That would be great. Lowland folks wouldn't have to worry about temps and the northerners would get their usual jackpot band. Then big high settles in and we have cold on snowpack.

Punting prime climo in the hope for table scraps is peak Mid Atlantic winter.

Cold ENSO = lowered expectations Can't be sad if you keep your expectations low!

Yes. Rare events are rare for a reason and we are in a multi-year regionwide snow drought.

Imagine if this supposed epic pattern in the long range is another head fake and we just flip to SER.

Man I'd love that. Clean pass to our south and cold smoke.

The advantage to several events is that we won't have Ji complaining for years because it was a wasted storm.

Low of 13. Actually feels like winter.

IMO, would much rather have a series of light to moderate events that doesn't wash the blocking away, in lieu of one big hit that melts off in 3 days.

It's reassuring to see what appears to be a lobe of the polar vortex drifting over Hudson Bay. Seeing 500 mb heights crash on our side of the globe is great.

Was living in York-New Salem and commuting to Gaithersburg. We had praying mantis on the Christmas garland it was so warm.

Euro says we all snow shower Christmas eve.

I was in Lancaster at Millersville for that event. We got 16" I believe but far eastern Lancaster (Gap, PA I think) got a 20" report as the got nicked a few times by the heavier bands. Ironically, up in PA the GFS came out with an early big storm that had something like 10" - 15" of snow from the turnpike south, backed off at D4, then came back at D2 with the exact same result. Harrisburg only got 5" or 6" out of it. We were really on the edge up here. Then it melted off in like 72 hours. But it was still a decent event! The two inch soil temps at Keedysville are down to 35° so that makes sense everything is accumulating more effectively.