Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Meso'd: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md0119.html
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It's all about the upper levels with this one. SPC meso analysis show 700mb temps are +1 to +2 so everything is melting. I'll still take this over the 50 and rain the GFS had for us early on Sunday.
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The sleet is bonding to the road surface more efficiently than snow. The ICC is having similar problems, especially on the bridges.
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This is some March 2007 level sleet. Wow.
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FYI, avoid I-270 folks...it's a mess.
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The roads with a few inches of sleet are definitely worse than any of the other snow events we've had this year. The cold air last night has helped the precipitation bond more efficiently to the road surfaces. Southbound I-270 from the Frederick County line to about the ICC has a lot of wrecks.
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Yup. If things were like 1 degree colder and just 10 to 20% wetter, we'd of won bigly every time. But compared last year and the year before that, this has been an okay winter.
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That event was insane. I was in Philly for that and got 4" of solid sleet after the day before was like 50 degrees. Took forever to melt off.
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Definitely learned my lessons that: 1.) Your location matters for climo (the further north or west you are the better) 2.) Always protect your lower end 3.) The mix line will always win
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Sounds like typical La Nina in these parts.
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Yup. Got decent returns all the way back to western West Virginia. Curious to know if we can get a second round of activity later this afternoon.
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In Gaithersburg at work. When precip lightens up, it's small sleet pellets, but whenever rates pick up it flips right back to snow.
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Roads this morning are pretty terrible. Even I-270 is snow/ice covered.
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To our west:
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22/16 New Windsor...ran an EMS call about an hour ago and it's cold as all get out.
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18z Euro is wetter for everyone east of I-81. Happy to see.
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Looks like LWX is upping totals for the Mason-Dixon zones. Now saying 6-10 for NW Baltimore, Carroll, Washington, and Frederick County in the updated ZFP.
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27/9 New Windsor, Carroll County. clear skies,
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When the 12z sounding is release tomorrow, we'll be able to see if there's a significant intrusion of warm air starting, or if things are colder and perhaps we have a better chance at a prolonged front end thump of snow. Normally, I'd look towards RNK, but as you said the event will probably be underway by then so that data won't be as useful.
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12z RAOB from IAD tomorrow will be very interesting. If it's colder, then we're golden everywhere.
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IMO, Sterling's snow map looks pretty good and I don't see anything on the guidance that would throw a red flag they're too high.
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I'm not sure if there's an advantage to an extra balloon release. The regularly scheduled 12z RAOB from RNK and IAD would help to see if there's anything hanging out aloft that could mess up the snow and that would be just as the goods start to materialize.
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HRRR is going to make a lot of friends. Snowy through the morning.
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^that's actually a decent chart and I hope you do these for future events
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Yup. Going to be very interesting to see what happens this afternoon with temps. We might wind up being a bit colder than guidance which isn't surprising. MAV/MET mos has been running a bit too high of late and as others alluded to earlier in this thread, being just a degree or two colder in the column for a few hours more tomorrow will have big implications between 2" - 4" of snow then a mix, or people boom and get 5"+.
