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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    No. The confluence isn't strong enough to blow this into the Carolinas.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Big takeaway from the 12z GEFS is that only 2 members show a miss, and about 7 show mostly rain. Just about every other run is a nice hit from I-95 NW. Even Baltimore City and DCA get accumulating snow. A good shift overal. Hope the UKMET and Euro agree.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS mean has all of the CTP CWA below freezing for the 12/16 event. It's a clear step in the right direction.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Yes, 12z op Canadian is the ideal track. It should be viewed as the best case scenario for this event and unfortunately probably not verify.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    To my eye, it does 3 things....kills the primary quicker, coastal gets cracking sooner, AND high pressure is stronger and better placed.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS trending colder for everyone in C. PA. So far, the 12z suite is in the right direction.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    12z CMC is a flush hit for everyone.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    WRT the 12/16 event, the 12z OPs GFS would get everyone on the board. It's colder, and has the antecedent high over Canada in a better position.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    No.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. We're getting into the Euro's wheelhouse. If it trends towards the GFS through Sunday, then man we might have some hope. FWIW, doesn't look like the GFS is warm through Christmas so this snow might stick around for a bit.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    12z OPS GFS kills the primary low in Tennessee this round. By HR120 the coastal low is popping off Hatteras. Also has a 1034mb high in Quebec instead of Newfoundland. This is a good shift. Hope the GEFS moves this way too. Onto the 12z Euro.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    To my eye, the 12z GFS OP is a good run for everyone N&W of I-95 for the 12/16 storm. Legit advisory criteria immediate I-95 and possible warning event for the the usual jackpot spots.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    (on ncep site) At HR 114, 850s are -6 to -10 N&W of US 15. 0 degree isotherm down the RIC.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    12z OPS GFS looks colder at 850 through HR 104. Better CAD signature.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    What is the ICON, is it an American model that's operational or something still under DEV?
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Counterpoint...if we somehow don't get to 60 or even the mid 50s then it works out even better.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    WRT 00z EPS, 8 of the 50 members have 9" or more of snow at DCA. 24/50 have at least 2".
  18. Eskimo Joe
    00z / 06z Euro OP/ENS loving the I-81 corridor next week. Even down into THV/LNS get some love. Get your snow shovels ready and put those Christmas lights out!
  19. Eskimo Joe
    FYI, since this applies to medium/long term winter weather:
  20. Eskimo Joe
    @usedtobe did a lot of research with this. Big storms occur during the NAO changing toward a negative state or trending away. Essentially, you need a big event to flip the antecedent state of the oscillation.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Fun fact with this event...the Ohio primary ended up stronger than progged, BUT the transfer to the coastal was pretty quick. A rare instance where up north into the PA mason/dixon counties boomed and DC didn't switch to rain. This was a rare wind for eveyone.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION OVER THE POSSIBLE STATE OF WATER FALLING FROM THE SKY NEXT WEEK.
  23. Eskimo Joe
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Hey all, there's cause to rejoice. About 35 - 40% of the 12 EPS give THV/LNS/MDT 6"+ snow in the next 10 calendar days. About 50% give HZL and MPO 6"+ during the same time. There's been a marked shift to colder, wetter solutions. Hopefully they hold, because it appears we are entering a period of colder storms and some folks here stand the chance of a white Christmas.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    For 120+ HR out, that's a strong signal.
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