Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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My cutoff has always been HR60.
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^man knock like 2 degrees off that and everyone wins. We are so close to a regionwide victory.
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Agreed
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No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event.
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18z EPS is much improved compared to 12z EPS.
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Okay that's a bit aggressive.
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IMO, there are negligible changes between the 18z OP Euro at HR90 and the 12z OP Euro at the same timeframe.
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12z op GFS at has a monster 200 mb jetstream that allow the surface low to really ventilate and torque west. The 00z/06z/12z did not have a feature as pronounced. Wonder if that's a blip or a sign of something.
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I just want the grass covered. That's all I'm asking. A 4" - 6" event.
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18z OP GFS cuts the coastal low into Point Lookout...that's really far west. Wonder what the ensembles will say. If they're all west we probably have a problem.
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IMO, 18z OP GFS trended in the wrong direction back to US 15. Mix line gets even past @mappy.
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Tony Pann on WBAL going full weenie on social media.
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Thank you so much for your continued analysis in this forum from afar. It's always appreciated.
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So far it appears as though the Euro EPS is the "worst" case scenario for snow lovers, the op Euro/UKMET/ICON/GFS/GEFS in the middle, the CMC/GGEM is the best.
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Yea the 12z EPS isnt great for anyone east of I81. Hope this doesn't shift further west.
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Even if you cut the euro snow totals in half, it's a legit warning criteria event.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z OP Euro is nice. Nothing to worry about. -
Euro is not bad from I95 and points north and west. Even DC and Baltimore City proper aren't terrible. Just a tick colder and the big cities win.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
12z OP GFS is money for Wed. Can't post images because I'm mobile, but it's good for you all. Solid warning event. -
Oh yea, this is might be a good run.
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So far on the 12z OP GFS, the confluence to our north looks a touch better and the high in Quebec looks a tad better.
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Never trust the 10:1 snow maps unless the whole column stays below -7. Otherwise, expect 2"-4" and be happy with what you get. It's just part of the climo of this area.
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Yea, 12z Tuesday suite is my go/no go for Wednesday. By then the Monday event is gone and we'll know for sure.
