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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    You never get above freezing. It looks like you stay snow the entire event. The mix line walks around the topside of I-695 but you flirt with probably a couple hours of solid snow rates and don't stop snowing until sometime just before sunrise Thursday.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    The 18z GFS actually matches Sterling's snowmap and warning/watch/advisory setup pretty well.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Per the 18z GFS, the 0° isotherm at 850 mb never makes it north of I-70 or west of MD 97. The 700 mb temps are colder in fact. It appears that I-95 west never gets above -3°.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    18z GFS has a decent amount of 700-850 lift on it. Front end thump would probably give most of the posters west of I-95 more snow than they had all of last winter.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    "warm air advection snow waits for no man", is a good forecasting rule. It almost always sneaks in here an hour or two ahead of schedule.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Text:
  7. Eskimo Joe
    One forecasting less I've learned from this event: if the NAM shows prolonged SE winds, trust where it's putting the mix line and under-forecast your snow amounts. It's always easier to revise upwards.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Unpopular personal opinion: It seems that we are dealing with anomalously warm ocean waters into late December more and more. I am not sure this is a normal cyclic thing or part of climate change (I happen to believe the latter), but if this persists we are going to have to learn to accept more mixing events and savor the rare cold powder storms. It seems that our winter climo is really changing for the worse in these parts for snow lovers over the past 20 years.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    The 12z HREF ensemble is actually a touch colder than it's 00z counterpart. I do not know the blend of what goes into it.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Almost never so I'm not expecting it.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Yea the GFS saves I-95 and points west. I really hope this is the start of a last minute trend for the better.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Yes absolutely. We need the coastal to form and cut off the SE winds at 850 as soon as possible. The earlier we do that, the more people win. Another 50 mile pump east would help too.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Yea...the NAM only leads up to disaster. I'm REALLY hoping the NAM is wrong but man it's hard to ignore. @PhineasC talked about how we can sometimes get a rouge SE bump by like 25 - 50 miles and brother do we need it now more than ever.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I have tropical tidbits up and the 0 degree isotherm at 850 straddles I-95 and I-95 never gets above -4 at 700mb which would imply rimmed snow or ice pellets. It isn't shoved west like 00z or 06z. This is definitely an improvement. I REALLY hope the NAM is wrong, but it's scored some big coups on thermals in the past.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Those storms are the best. It looks like 40 and rain at D3 then BAM you're sitting at 5" - 9" and NWS is playing big time catchup.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    This is going to out-bust March 2013. Amazing how the NAM outscored the Euro...only in 2020 could this happen.
  17. Eskimo Joe
  18. Eskimo Joe
    I'm trying to remain optimistic, but the writing appears to be on the wall here for just about everyone.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Weatherbell or TT would be preferred then cut everything in half and use that as the high number in your range.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Pivotal snow maps have a known bias to not be the best. Almost any other site is better.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    You literally maximize the lift in the DGZ. You'd even super saturate with that.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    18z EPS is pretty terrible. There's really no way to put it nicely. Event the Mason-Dixon crew flips and back to I-81. We gotta hope it's wrong.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    To my eyes, the NAM looks east by a decent chunk (50 miles?).
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Updates watch text from CTP:
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