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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Gaithersburg (KGAI) reporting -SN and a Td of 22. Should help reinforce the wedge.
  2. If we can somehow pop the 850 low a few hours earlier and a bit east this could still work out...it's absolutely a long shot and probably won't happen but one can wish.
  3. Latest WPC surface map. Worth following this account if you have Twitter...they're a WPC met:
  4. This definitely seems to be coming in earlier than forecast.
  5. Fredericksburg and Stafford AWOS are reporting -SN
  6. Orange, VA ASOS (K0MH) is reporting -SN. Good to see the column can support snow at the onset that far south.
  7. SPC is your best site. Here are the RAOBS: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
  8. Just checked the 12z RAOB out of IAD. There appears to be a bit of a warm nose somewhere around 800 mb, but there's a bit of dry air above and below it. I wonder if the dry air would allow precip to cool the column more effectively and maybe offset that. It would have big implications for snow totals, especially down towards the cities if we can really thump for a few hours as SN or even +SN.
  9. Per the SPC mesoanalysis, the coastal has popped offshore of South Carolina at 1012 mb.
  10. Yea, SPC's HREF (experimental or operational?) seemed to initialize the Quebec high better than most and is, as a result, colder down through I-95 and maybe even into Annapolis.
  11. Either Valentine's Day 2007 or the one in March...I got 5" of sleet in Philly from the March storm.
  12. A lot of meso models are hammering I-70 up into south central PA with the WAA snow tomorrow. There's some impressive 850-700 mb forcing with that.
  13. Appears the 3k NAM gives a lot of people low end advisory snow on the backside.
  14. After this event, we all deserve a stone cold mauling.
  15. http://stream1.cmatc.cn/pub/comet/WinterWeather/oceansnowcase/comet/norlat/snow/micro_ice/1.5.natural_cloud_seeding.htm
  16. Oh yikes. Sending good vibes for your furry kid.
  17. @mappy, @a.salt, @HighStakes, @psuhoffman, 18z GFS COBB data keeps Westminster as all snow.
  18. The 18z NAM 3k, GFS, and RGEM all advertise a quick, say 3 hour, CCB on the backside for Frederick, Carroll, Howard, Baltimore, and Harford counties. It's all snow with crashing temps that might deliver a surprise to the usual suspects. Not something to bank on, but it would be snow on top of IP/ZR which would be guaranteed to stick.
  19. I walk the line in Reisterstown and flip to IP or ZR for a time...that's fine with me. Another 30 miles SE and it would probably push you back into the 12"+ range.
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