Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Eskimo Joe replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
So EMT class has sucked me into a black hole. Are there 2 threats for next week...Monday and Thursday? -
I'd prefer P29.
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Credit @paulythegun
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It's not out of the realm of possibility that we squeak out a quick cartopper from the weekend event. I would put the odds at 1 in 5 right now.
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For those wondering about the cold, the end of the 18z OP GFS has DC not getting out of the upper 20s on Inauguration Day. Sub zero air in Canada and the Great Lakes.
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He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.
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Wes isn't enthused by the 12z OP euro.
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WRT to 12z EPS, the mean/individual members are not as wound up as the OP. It would argue all snow for everyone north of St. Mary's city. Hope we see the GFS start to catch on.
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Notice how the Pacific ridge is actually here, we almost get some cross polar flow here so temps won't be an issue with any storm that we get.
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6 days out, everything has shift NW with time this winter. Lets see what the Euro has at 12z.
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No. Next question.
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Agreed. Standard caveat is that folks should always have low expectations going into this and be happy with what we get. To see this in a La Nina pattern is pretty amazing.
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12z EPS sets up decent western ridge and maintains the stout -NAO. Cross polar flow tries to show up around Jan 16th. This is a signal that has existed for the past 24 hours:
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*ahem* I'll have you know I'm on the southern end of Jackpotville™.
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EPS sets up cross polar flow and a western ridge towards the end of the run. To have it show up on the ensembles and not some rogue OP run is important and boost confidence in this solution:
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meso models starting to really ping an advisory level snow event Sunday for I-70 north and US15 west.
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12z GFS/CMC definitely trended in the right direction.
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Trace ZR Reisterstown 32/29.
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Yea Eric Webb isn't a big snow weenie. If he starts getting interested then so do I.
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IIRC it was the winter of 2017-2018. We got almost a half inch of ice in northern Montgomery County.
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How long until Ji complains?
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It's now 2021 for those living in UTC time. 33/30 with light fireworks in Reisterstown.
