Eskimo Joe

Rekt

IMO, SPC is smart to not highlight at D3 for this area. A subtle shift of 50 miles in the track is a big deal for downstream impacts. For the next couple of days, I would argue it's worthwhile to look upstream at these items: 1.) Location of flooding and heavy rain versus the forecast placement. 2.) Location of severe weather, tornadic activity in particular, versus the forecast placement. 3.) Overall expanse of the warm sector and whether it's dirty or big breaks in the clouds. 4.) Speed of the system.

Wednesday could be a sneaky overperforming event for us.

Yes. Was expecting Fred to be further west of where it is now. Could be a conditional tornado risk Wed into Thursday.

Got a screenshot of what it looks like?

Bring it

Mowed the lawn...lost a good 10lbs of body weight in sweat.

Maybe this will be our year

Significant uptick in CG for storms west of Charles Town and Martinsburg. Might be the "storm of the day" trying to form there.

IAD at 95 and FDK at 97. Probably pre-frontal winds and touch of downsloping aiding in the spike.

Would argue that given the meso disco out, even though it's only 40% watch probability, that we get upgraded to a slight risk with the afternoon update.

Something to add to your knowledge base:

I ran a history of all Excessive Heat Advisories through the iembot. I don't have the time to view the results, but here's a KML file you can pop into Google maps/earth to see what the density is: sbw_interval.kml

06z GFS is a weak system into the SE US.

Tomorrow could be sneaky good. We've been baking for 2 days and there's an actual front pressing down.

No kicker, we lose.

102 at DMW at 5:30 pm...wow. FWIW, it's 99 at New Windsor 6 miles down the road in the shade so I think that's a legit reading.

IAD hits new record high of 100.

CBE hit 99...FDK, HGR, and DMW hit 100 today. Really over performing heat today!

95/73/106 in Gaithersburg

46 tomatoes and 3 zucchini harvested yesterday. What a haul this year after a slow start in the garden.

They're already in NE Maryland.

37 storm related calls in just the Bethesda area. 56 total across down county.

60% chance of a WW this afternoon.

There we go: