Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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The debris signature appears to have been lofted upwards of 20,000 ft and some of the debris was probably carried into Mercer County. Unreal. Mt. Holly WHO really has been the epicenter of mid atlantic and tornadoes this year.- 487 replies
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- hurricane
- flooding potential
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I grew up less than a mile from there. What you're seeing is the Schuylkill River on the right and the Manayunk Canal on the left. In the middle is Venice Island. It's called Venice Island because what you see in the video happens during bigger events. The apartment complexes were built against the wishes of the residents, but money talks. This flood though is far greater than any I've ever seen there...likely beating Floyd, Lee/Irene, and the 1996 melt.
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If the system was a bit slower and had a bit more negative tilt, this would've been a legit MOD risk Mid Atlantic to New England tornado outbreak. We were so close to a grand slam event.
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We might never see something like that again in our lifetime. Unreal.
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Nocturnal TVS approaching EWR. Unreal event and it stings that DC missed it by just a few hours.
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Yea. That's a top 10 tornado outbreak for them. Twice in one year for Mt. Holly WFO. Holy moley.
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Confirmed tornado Federalsburg, MD per law enforcement.
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Rain, wind, or both?
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Stuff along I-81 is running out of time to get it's act together.
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Last chance for anything is that little segment pushing through Front Royal.
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KNAK reported fair or partly cloudy conditions for about 4 hours. That appears to be enough to let storms get rooted in surface instability: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNAK.html
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Ivan, 2005. There was one other event that I can't recall off the top of my head.
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Cell of the day. Edgewater, MD per comments.
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Cells east of DC probably robbing all the inflow for those west of I-95.
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Pretty solid tornado risk across Delmarva, IMO. If one were to attempt a chase, that's the place to be.
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This system seems to be moving quicker than originally forecast. It looks like the best chance for a brief spin up from I-95 west will be with that cluster of cells near CHO.
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We're socked in with clouds pretty good. I'm not discounting a watch box later today or a brief spinny west of the bay, but I'm not enthused at the risk for a bigger tor in the immediate DC metro area.
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I think the tornado risk west of the bay is pretty marginal. Any chance of a decent TOR is probably across Delmarva or S NJ.
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Up there, it's likely a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) and there's even some weak rotation on those cells. They're going to jackpot on flooding and maybe even the tornado potential up there. I'm considering heading up there tomorrow. Going to be a memorable event in the mountains.
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The Schuylkill River is tidal from the Art Museum dam and below. Grew up in Roxborough and know the river and Wissahickon Creek well.
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Central PA - Summer 2021
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
High risk of flooding per WPC for you all tomorrow. I am insanely jealous of what's about to unfold across S Central PA tomorrow. Going to be one for the record books for some. Already a good PRE ongoing across Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, and Franklin counties with even some weak spin. Seriously enjoy this, going to be a storm worth studying once all is said and done. -
It's all contingent on us breaking out into sunshine to build surface instability. We don't do that well in these parts.
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D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
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It's a complete disaster.
