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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Big dewpoint disparity between Baltimore (low 70s) and Philadelphia (low 50s). This backdoor front might give us the lift we need to produce more widespread, efficient rain makers.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Meso guidance really liking the Potomac River counties this afternoon.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    It's probably over for us until tropical season. We're in the summer doldrums.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    The lack of shear and mid level lapse rates are killers today. Otherwise there would be some true gully washers forming.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Decent instability Baltimore and into Delmarva. Won't take much there to kick something off.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Hopefully these clouds melt away so we can get some heat. I love hot summers.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Meso guidance is pretty dry throughout the region today and tomorrow. I'd probably toss the Euro.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Euro is broken...always shows big heat and big rain anymore.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    A cicada flew into my wife's coffee while she was on the deck this morning. She ate it and now for some reason all she can do is go BRRRRRR and flutter around the house. Send help.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Our pool temp jumped 4 degrees in the past two days. Feels great.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Main cell just south of Mt. Vernon getting a decent hail signature on it. Dover and ADW radar starting to pick up on it.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Watch box is out: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0235.html
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Watch box coming for the slight risk area: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0847.html
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Latest update has several 40kt + pixels. Definitely warrants the SVR for wet microburst potential.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Wind shift to W in Gaithersburg and out Td is falling into the mid 60s. Looks like no mas for us west of I-95.
  16. Eskimo Joe
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Weak mid level lapse rates will kill you every time in these parts. Couldn't maintain updrafts so it's just sporadic wind reports.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Winchester cell is the one to watch.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Couple of cells trying to fire in Loudoun and Montgomery counties.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC meso analysis has MLCAPE up to 1,000 j/kg through DC and across US 50. A bit better than I thought it would be when I woke up this morning.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    The image below shows how long many hours it takes for a watch box to verify after it's issued. Note the clear correlation between watch probability in the antecedent MCD and number of watch boxes that verify within 2.5 hours of issuance. FWIW, the meso I posted above is 60%.
  22. Eskimo Joe
  23. Eskimo Joe
    NAM twins putting a decent UHI track in the Frederick/Carroll county tornado zone. EDIT: HRRR giving some UHI love to Frederick / Carroll / Howard / Baltimore counties.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR is more encouraging for us this afternoon. Would be a standard slight risk day.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    The last couple of frames of the visible satellite leaves some room for optimism for those of us in the slight risk area. The 12z RAOB from Sterling indicated a convective temp of 79° and we're starting to see a few 80°+ values pop up. If we can get into the lows 80s then perhaps things can work out better for us.
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