Eskimo Joe

Possible TVS on the cell south of Pittsburgh. Some of the CAMS have that cluster spawning our nocturnal activity. That's the sector to watch, IMO.

Key takeaway: Craven SigSvr Parameter The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as "deep layer shear") accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3. The index is formulated as follows: C = (MLCAPE J kg-1) * (SHR6 m s-1) For example, a 0-6-km shear of 20 m s-1 (40 knots) and CAPE of 3000 J kg-1 results in a Craven SigSvr index of 60,000. Units are scaled to the nearest 1000 on the web plot. Reference: Craven, J. P., and H. E. Brooks, 2004: Baseline climatology of sounding derived parameters associated with deeep moist convection. Natl. Wea. Digest, 28, 13-24.

SPC mesonalayis showing a 60 kt jet streak over Pittsburgh and we're seeing MLCAPRE starting to creep towards 1,500 j/kg. Intriguing.

No

It's been pretty neato up here.

Cautiously optimistic that someone sees a good storm today. My logic: Strong sun, no mid level crapola that we have to fight. Solid low level lapse rates Mid level lapse rates, while not amazing, aren't crapola to our NW where storms are firing. Decent shear We've got 1,000 j/kg ML CAPE too. That's good to see.

Watching coming shortly to our NW.

Latest mesoanalysis shows ~900j/kg of DCAPE. Fairly confident we get under a watch at some point today.

New SWODY1. Don't sleep on the 50kt jet:

Yea I got a foot in this one I guess. It's kinda a NW flow event with decent shear. It's been wet recently so we might see more trees down than usual. I honestly could see a sneaky ENH upgrade at midday if things look a bit more certain.

HREF is pretty bullish for everyone north of I-66 and east of I-81 today.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_19980602#:~:text=Tuesday%2C June 2%2C began with,severe weather for the area.&text=Around 8%3A00 pm%2C one,county 911 center in Cumberland.

If we can speed things up tomorrow by just an hour or two and get a bit more clearing, someone could get smacked bigly.

M2.32" since midnight in Reisterstown.

IAD, DAA, and JYO reporting heavy rain now.

Don't sleep on that activity in northern Loudoun County into Frederick.

HRRR really nailing the placement of heavy precip this morning. Tries to target southern Maryland for the rest of the day with considerable rainfall.

If you have state minimum, probably not.

IMO, if your check engine light turns on tomorrow take it to a repair shop ASAP. You might've screwed yourself.

Water starting to pile up in northern carroll county.

Surprised that Carroll County cell near Pleasant Valley isn't warned for the wet microburst potential.

Like clockwork, the convection is developing further north and east than what was progged by the guidance.

This is a textbook setup for a couple of communities to get flooded out.

MOD RISK WOO!!! WEDGES FOR EVERYONE! Wait. . .