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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    We're staring down another ho hum severe season. It's almost June and we've yet to have a decent event.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Significant downward trend overnight. Looks like a run of the mill event now at best. This is why you wait until the day of to get invested.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Strong convection, especially nocturnal, will often persist long than what the CAMs have. April 26-27, 2011 is a perfect example of this. There were supercells from Alabama that tracked into South Central PA and still dropped tornadoes along the way.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    The Keedysville mesonet site in Washington County, just north of Antietam Battlefield, only gusted to M36 mph just a minute ago. Pretty clear there is a surface inversion developing that is prohibiting the winds aloft from getting to the surface.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Best to wait until 10 am - 12 pm tomorrow. We'll have everything lined up then. For now, I remain cautiously optimistic.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    00z RAOB for IAD coming in: 2200 CAPE and LL lapse rates of -8 c/km. That Culpepper storm is going to sustain for a bit.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Culpepper storm getting a TOR.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Wonder if this line overturns all the instability tonight.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Very impressive wind reports coming out with this line!
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Some impressive wind damage reports coming out of the mountains.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Somewhat interested in tomorrow. The system coming across Missouri, Illinois, and Missouri seems energetic and is producing a decent number of tornadoes. We'll see what the visible satellite imagery tomorrow looks like.
  12. Eskimo Joe
  13. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR seems to be pooling some low level moisture better east of I-81. Good to see.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Flying from Midway to BWI this afternoon through this mess should be fun.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Makes sense. Don't think a 10% is needed, but we could definitely get a 30% wind tomorrow.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Bingo. Probably a decent slight or enh risk tomorrow.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    I hope we don't have another cold summer.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Sterling has been a leader in decision support for big events. It's nice to see this and I hope it becomes a standard across the NWS.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Chill out.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    The orientation and proximity of the warm front on Monday would have me lean towards the NAM family. Definitely a decent set up for tornadoes.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Oooo...can you share the new tables?
  22. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, there are too many mesoscale features in these parts to accurately define severe weather risk beyond D2. I'll be back in Maryland Sunday afternoon and hope to see some storms next week.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Legit derecho
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Count on it. I'm in Alaska until Memorial Day.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    NNE flow can be great this time of year.
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