Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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From @Ellinwood
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Through HR 72, temps don't appear to be an issue for DCA or even Wes.
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Fixed my post. Apologies.
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Pretty classic signature Monday off the mid-Atlantic (purple shading is QG omega amplification [diff. cyc. vort adv] term):
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@ers-wxman1 and i were discussing this last night. You'd want to see the precip field expand as the event nears if you're looking for higher numbers. This is a good sign. Hope the other guidance starts picking it up, because that would up confidence on a more widespread high performing event.
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Canadian has the typical JYO to BWI jackpot zone.
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For reference, the January snow climo: IAD 7.3" BWI 6.8" DCA 5.6"
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Man the GFS is nice. Everyone wins...even Delmarva get a solid warning event.
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12z GFS has 996 low off Ocean City at 06z Tuesday. That's what we want to see.
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Morning AFD from LWX.
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RGEM is nice, keeps the primary into Kentucky with a clean handoff. Would be a solid 6" - 12" for everyone. Nothing extreme from the coastal, but it would be a nice icing on the WAA snow.
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For those asking about snow climo for 1/31 and 2/1:
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They always are with Miller B events. You essentially hand off the surface, mid and upper levels from one storm to another.
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Yup. Backside love was decent from I-70 north.
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The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl.
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I'd still consider the ensemble guidance until we're inside HR 60. Once you get inside that, the ENS just cluster.
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Dat cluster is niiiice. CC: @ers-wxman1
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Looks like LWX is going with likely pops starting Sunday now.
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You mean this one? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html
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I wouldn't bet on it.
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The 500 and 850 low pass is textbook for a solid warning criteria snowfall for IAD, DCA, and BWI. Beautiful.
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I'll take the 12z Euro in a skinny minute. Temps don't appear to be an issue and the CCB is still there.
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Seems that only 3/20 of the Canadian ensembles are total whiffs. Everything else looks like decent.
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This is just me musing between models runs, but at D3 I'd rather worry more about something going a bit south of me than the mix line.
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On this panel, you can clearly see the handoff to the coastal low is well underway by looking at the wind barbs. SE winds should flips to E then NE in the following panels.
