Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Pete knows his stuff.
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4 to 8 would be the entire Janurary climo in one storm.
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It's the best case scenario, especially for DC/I-66 and points south. There definitely has been a northward tick with the 00z runs. Hopefully it's just a blip and when the Euro comes out it'll hold serve. The 00z suite is the first set of models that has all of the energy well onshore and sample by the RAOB network so we should see the guidance get a better handle on things quickly.
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00z CMC tucks off OCMD. As @psuhoffman states, it's great.
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Yup. If DC gets double digits, you and I always win.
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Hope we don't see this creep north with each run though. IMO, by 12z tomorrow we'll probably know if we're looking at a low end warning event or if something special is coming down the pike. Having flashbacks from December.
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You and I are on the same page, NAM kept bumping that mix line NW and folks just laughed it off until it became clear things were going that way. Also wanted to say that somehow when I quoted this post it added a ''laugh'' reaction and I can't change it because I hit my limit for the day. Weird.
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LWX's new snow map is decent. Would be the biggest event for many in several years and meet or exceed January climo for IAD, DCA, and BWI.
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Updated LWX AFD:
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I never looks HRRR or CAMS beyond 24 hours before an event.
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Yes, they also have Cecil now so that 1 office has all of 95 in MD for easier warn on.
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Not sure if already posted, but LWX just expanded the watch back to Cumberland.
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All the players are onshore now, so we should see things start to tighten up. I would still carry some weight on the ensembles through 12z tomorrow for what the coastal does.
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If that happens the forum will probably crash.
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Indeed it is. Even gives @usedtobe some love.
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Yea, I'm not sure.
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The watch is out:
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Given the high probabilities of 6"+ from the 12z Euro ENS, I wouldn't be surprised to see watches go up from LWX either this afternoon or evening.
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Yea, they hedge a lot, but for a first call I can understand the boom and bust scenario. It's no different than LWX's 10% and 90% percentile maps.
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12z OP euro did the weird double coastal low and banked on the further OTS on this time. If it winds up the left side wins, then we all go boom and win.
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For our far, far western folks.
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CWG first map:
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The Euro ENS mean snowfall supports a warning criteria event for much of the LWX CWA. Looks like the northern edge improved a bit as well. While there are some sheared out ensemble members, there are also a larger number of big hits.
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12z today is probably the last cycle that we can use ensembles. Maybe the 18z GEFS/EPS for placement of the coastal low since it's not until Monday, but that's it.
