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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    HREF has been pretty good inside 36 hours this year.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Saw a couple of posts about NAM MOS throwing surface temps up above 32 at DCA. It should be noted that it's been a few degrees too warm of late.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Canadian is a sick run for DC north.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Our cul de sac is almost exclusively elderly folks so my snowblower is welcome.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    This is the kind of storm where you wait to shovel until the very end so the ZR doesn't bond to the pavement.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    It appears as though the 12z CMC and GFS flip the western and northern suburbs back to a period of moderate snow on the backside.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Yea it's a solid run.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS implies near warning level snow for IAD and DCA before the flip. Haven't look close enough for BWI yet but it's a good run.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS is better for the cities than the NAM.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Updated LWX AFD:
  11. Eskimo Joe
    3k NAM brings another round of IP/ZR during the late afternoon and evening east of I-81. Would be another ice layer on top of whatever falls and at night.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    So far, it appears the NAMs are much faster than the rest of guidance. Interesting to see if this is a trend.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Life in the DMV.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    NAMs would imply some frozen drizzle, light ZR in the evening on top of everything. I have my EMT test Thursday night so I'm hoping things trend worse so it can get knocked back to next Tuesday.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Through HR54, the NAM definitely is better for I-95. Eventual flip to IP/ZR for DCA, but it's good to see more frozen.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    It appears the past 3 runs of the NAM have progressively, but slowly weakened the southerly winds at 700 mb, which would be a trend to the GFS.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    We've seen a drying and deamplification trend as we close in on events this year. Wonder if that happens this time.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Damn impressive
  19. Eskimo Joe
    IIRC, the SREFs have some of the NAM-esque members in there so if the NAM trends one way don't the SREFs follow to a degree? Can anyone confirm that? @ers-wxman1, @WxUSAF, @csnavywx?
  20. Eskimo Joe
    GFS is obviously right because it has some semblance of a DC Snow Hole™.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    By HR84 on the 18z GFS, 00z Friday, the surface low is in interior South Carolina and the 700mb temps are still below freezing from EZF to the Bay Bridge. Much colder than the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs from today.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Yup, it's colder at 850 across the entire area even back through Erie (-10 now versus -7 previous run) and up through Philly. Good to see.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Damn
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Nice
  25. Eskimo Joe
    FYI, MD 94 is being closed down at the Howard/Montgomery County border due to icing conditions and trees coming down.
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