Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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I have the 00z HRRR out to HR37 on COD and it looks pretty good from EZF north.
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How wet?
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There's been a last minute trend for drier and deamplification within HR36 this winter. I'm hoping the 18z Euro isn't sniffing out a trend.
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I think that map's a bit pessimistic. Aloft looks a bit colder and there's going to be sleet on top of that.
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Euro is 6" - 10" for Montgomery County.
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Is it drier areawide, and if so, by about how much?
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Yup. Nothing worse than praying the night before the event that we get the cold air in at 3am when the precip starts at 5 and then waking up to 34/33 and white rain.
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^oh man that is NICE
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Winds ripping pretty good in Westminster. Temp down to 37.
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If you're in the mid 20s with moderate precip, it's going to accumulate.
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GFS give Short Pump the ole' middle finger.
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Hush. Never doubt the ability of something to pull the football away last minute.
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GFS is noice for BWI, DCA, and IAD. Even down to EZF does better.
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Watch coming out shortly.
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You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else?
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EPS is really nice, colder across the board and a couple of double digit hits even in to the beltway and I-95. FWIW, since we're at about HR48 to 55 prior to start, this is probably the last useful run of the ensembles because they tend to cluster inside HR 48.
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For our SW members:
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12z suite was solid overall from I-66 north. Two days ago we were staring at a warm rain. Would like to see the NAM twins start going colder/wetter.
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Yup. This time last year we were chasing D15 phantom patter changes.
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WBAL's favorite model, the RPM, has EZF and even St. Mary's City starting as snow for a couple of hours. Definitely a colder tick across the board.
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@Bob Chill you're all snow on the 2nd wave. Warning level event for you.
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Will be interested to see what the EPS has. This is the last suites where I'd look at the ensembles.
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I don't think the 850s get above -2 north of I-70, unless I'm seeing something incorrectly.
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All of the globals now picking up on a flip back to snow on the backside. Really nice to see.
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Euro has a better CAD signature.
