Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Really appreciate the insight here from you and the rest of the Mets. The discourse over the past several pages has been quite informative.
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There are verification scores for each model going out to D6.
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18z GEFS loses almost all of the inland lows. Really hope Crack. GFS and Euro runs are just too wound up and smoking crack.
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I know this is kind of a weenie sentiment, but I'd like to give this another 24 hours before we kill this. Couple of things I'm looking for: 1.) Do we see this west trend continue? 2.) Would like to see what happens once we get this system onshore an into the North American upper air network. 3.) Hopefully we can get the antecedent high into a better position. We need it over Quebec, not New England, to lock in the cold and prevent the coastal from running inland.
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GFS with an insane jet at 850. Winds screaming off the ocean like that will warm you up quick no matter what.
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Yea its an ugly op run. No other way to slice it.
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Antecedent high too far east. We need it over Quebec, not Vermont.
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18z OP GFS is a disaster. Hope the ensembles are different. System just winds up too fast.
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Personally, I'm more focused in the evolution at 500/850 and the ensemble mean versus operational. Beyond HR96, you'll just drive yourself crazy focusing on run to run variations of the operational side of things.
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Man, that's a sizeable number of big hits on the 12z EPS.
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Good point @brooklynwx99 how often do you see a closed 500mb low on ensemble guidance at D5/6?
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As long as I stay all frozen through the event I don't care. If that means ZR and IP that's fine. Just a stouter snowpack to keep the cold in.
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How about rain for La Plata and snow for everyone else.
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Yup. Having Walt at Mt. Holly was a treat. When he gets excited, hang onto your hat.
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Aw yes.
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Same thing with MOS guidance revert to climo temps by D6. Folks need to just take things a week at a time and don't wish away decent patterns.
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Eric Webb and Alan Huffman are probably salivating right now.
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Snow and falling temps are great. Cold powder with no temp worries. Deep winter
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12z EPS implies we get snow this weekend. Not everything can be a BECS. Would be an advisory type event. Not terrible.
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Nice to see the ensembles agree with the OP. If the Euro looks anything like the Canadian, we might be on the way to stealing a third event inside 120 hours this winter.
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Adding onto my previous post, if the 12z CMC were to verify, it would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall.
