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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    For the past few years it seems the axis is heavy precip from summertime mid latitude cyclones has been to trend further north and east in the 12-24 hours leading up to the event.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    It's worthless without the PNA though.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    We do well with CAPE that's elevated in these parts. Given the increased amount of urban infrastructure, the nocturnal stratiform rain is better for the waterways. Less thermal shock, less chance of flash flooding.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Sitting at Ott House in Emmittsburg and it definitely has //that feel// up here.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Headed to Cumberland for the weekend. Surprised at the red box. Hopefully I catch something in the mountains.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Woke up to clouds and rain. Lololol
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Let's bake and get days in the 100s.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Watch us bust with a mid level cloud deck and never get above the low 80s.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Couple of hard learned lessoned learned about convective days here: 1.) Always take the under. You won't be dissapointed. 2.) There are a lot of ways we lose in these parts, mostly from terrain and water boundaries. 3.) If we get a good EML/mid level lapse rates, it helps to overcome the aforementioned local issues. 4.) We don't do multiple rounds of storms well, unless you're angling for flooding.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    I completely agree with this assessment. I'm a big fan of not "over forecasting" the event. There is nothing wrong with waking up to a strongly worded slight risk then adding the ENH, or MOD at the day goes on. I think that's why the April 27, 2011 event in Alabama was so well forecast because SPC and the local WFOs just upped the confidence as the event drew close.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. Oy.
  12. Eskimo Joe
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Howard and Baltimore County schools eating crow.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Decent mamatus in Reisterstown from that DC cell.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    The one good thing we still have going for us is that we have a decent bit of shear and low level lapse rates. My temp has rebounded to 75 degrees so it's possible we could see a few beefy cells, but yea this morning's activity really capped any potential for a high end event in these parts.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    zzzz...next
  17. Eskimo Joe
    That crapvection entering DC and Baltimore metro might be the kiss of death for this afternoon if we don't get some respectable sunshine behind it.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Saturday is the day for our western folks
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Naw the SWODY MOD is our curse. Going to wait until midday tomorrow before I decide where I'm in or out.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Yea. I'm with you. Expect to be underwhelmed and you won't be disappointed in these parts.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Stop living and dying by sim reflectivity.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    If we manage good sun tomorrow, I could see a low end MOD Risk for wind. The potential is definitely there.
  24. Eskimo Joe
  25. Eskimo Joe
    DCA: 99IAD: 100BWI: 101RIC: 100
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