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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Several cells firing in central WV which would probably be our action. Visible satellite starting to show breaks in the clouds east of I-81.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    PBZ issuing a tornado warning NW PA.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Might just be me, but it seems like the line is forming and trucking a bit faster than what's been progged on the HRRR and some of the other CAMs. Timing might now be too much of an issue.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Another GR placefile. This one shows the potential for CG: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PLTG_GOES-East_CONUS_LOOP Typically, if a cell/line/cluster get 50% potential, the ERH offices seem to issue an SPS for it. Good for outdoor activity planning, etc.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    For those of you watching from home with GR radar, here's the experimental NOAA CIMSS placefile for estimating the probability of a storm/cluster/line producing severe weather: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE More info including documentation: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/training/training.html#psv2
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Bit of clearing in WV resulting in SBCAPE of ~500j/kg and supercell composite starting to nose up. Not going to take a lot of sun today to stir things up.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    SPC meso analysis picked up some okay mid level lapse rates from Baltimore NE into Reading. That might be what they're talking about?
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Today actually reminds me more of Feb 7, 2020. Overcast but conditional tornado threat. Got 2 hours of clearing right before the line and this happened: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200207
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Let's clear these clouds out and we should he good.
  10. Eskimo Joe
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's a non-zero chance of a few spin ups tomorrow, especially if we can realize some prolonged sunshine. This system seems a bit beefier than previously modeled.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Source?
  13. Eskimo Joe
    SPC has nudged the entire D2 SLGT risk further NW...now pretty squarely in the I-81 to I-95 corridor. 15% wind/hail risk.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Think this is probably the first solid SLGT risk regionwide for the year. That should be our benchmark.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    No wonder why we have so many convective snow showers and squalls today...SPC mesoanalysis has us a -20 or better at 700mb across most of Maryland.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Snow squalls and multi-vehicle collisions on I-81 go hand in hand. //language warning//
  17. Eskimo Joe
    No
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Yea it was an insanely large MOD Risk area. Probably the largest in these parts: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020428 IMO, I love SPC but they seems to be a bit wonky east of the Ohio River.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    A good questions. I had the GIS maps on my phone but then it died so I can't find them anymore. Within the LWX CWA (this applies to only the Day 1 outlook): 1.) 15 - 17 Slight Risks per calendar year 2.) 1 - 3 Enhanced Risks per calendar year 3.) 1 Moderate Risk every 4 years. 4.) 0 High Risks 4.) Derecho climatology is one about every 4 years (we are due for one) This event was painful and interesting. As George said, there was a D1 MOD Risk (Hatched 45% for wind!), then a D1 MOD Risk (Hatched 45% for win and a 10% TOR!!) and it looked great, then an early morning MCS came through and blew all the instability. As it passed through however, it deposited a boundary along Loudoun, Fairfax, Montgomery, Howard, and Prince Georges counties that acted as a trigger for a lone cell in the afternoon. That resulted in a tornado warned storm. We actually saw it on a tower cam and relayed the information back to LWX as it was happening. (Link: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=LWX&year=2013&month=6&day=13&year2=2022&month2=3&day2=27&view=grid&order=asc) which was later confirmed as a long track (Link to PNS: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=201306142330). That was the first tornado assessment I ever took part in. Link to event: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130613
  20. Eskimo Joe
    I'm definitely intrigued with the setup. We typically get one solid SLGT/ENH per spring and this might be it.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, if this continues we could see this be a ENH with the SLGT back to I-81.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    We'll see how this week progresses, but we tend to do well when we have cooperative mid level lapse rates. This seems to aid updrafts and overcome the litany of local mseoscale features that mess up convection.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Thursday into Friday could really be interesting.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, reminds me of a late autumn afternoon.
  25. Eskimo Joe
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