Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Definitely learned my lessons that: 1.) Your location matters for climo (the further north or west you are the better) 2.) Always protect your lower end 3.) The mix line will always win
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Sounds like typical La Nina in these parts.
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Yup. Got decent returns all the way back to western West Virginia. Curious to know if we can get a second round of activity later this afternoon.
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In Gaithersburg at work. When precip lightens up, it's small sleet pellets, but whenever rates pick up it flips right back to snow.
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Roads this morning are pretty terrible. Even I-270 is snow/ice covered.
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To our west:
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22/16 New Windsor...ran an EMS call about an hour ago and it's cold as all get out.
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18z Euro is wetter for everyone east of I-81. Happy to see.
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Looks like LWX is upping totals for the Mason-Dixon zones. Now saying 6-10 for NW Baltimore, Carroll, Washington, and Frederick County in the updated ZFP.
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27/9 New Windsor, Carroll County. clear skies,
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When the 12z sounding is release tomorrow, we'll be able to see if there's a significant intrusion of warm air starting, or if things are colder and perhaps we have a better chance at a prolonged front end thump of snow. Normally, I'd look towards RNK, but as you said the event will probably be underway by then so that data won't be as useful.
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12z RAOB from IAD tomorrow will be very interesting. If it's colder, then we're golden everywhere.
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IMO, Sterling's snow map looks pretty good and I don't see anything on the guidance that would throw a red flag they're too high.
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I'm not sure if there's an advantage to an extra balloon release. The regularly scheduled 12z RAOB from RNK and IAD would help to see if there's anything hanging out aloft that could mess up the snow and that would be just as the goods start to materialize.
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HRRR is going to make a lot of friends. Snowy through the morning.
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^that's actually a decent chart and I hope you do these for future events
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Yup. Going to be very interesting to see what happens this afternoon with temps. We might wind up being a bit colder than guidance which isn't surprising. MAV/MET mos has been running a bit too high of late and as others alluded to earlier in this thread, being just a degree or two colder in the column for a few hours more tomorrow will have big implications between 2" - 4" of snow then a mix, or people boom and get 5"+.
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Ice palace. Having ZR/IP fall at night without significant warm air punching north is a recipe for
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The products were updated to say, "around one tenth to one quarter of an inch".
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Yup. Typical La Nina climo storm...you nickel and dime your way towards climo. Considering that we had almost nothing to track last year inside of D15, this is at least something.
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Looking at the QPF panels for the 3k NAM and RGEM there appears to be a nudge up and better distribution of the moisture from the cities N&W.
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SPC's 12z HREF is running. 00z HREF was 0.5" to 1.0" mean QPF across the I-81 to I-95 corridor.
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Warnings coming out shortly.
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Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything.
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00z HRRR at 14z Thursday, (HR 38), DCA is upper 20s at the surface.
