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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    We're definitely going to slide back into a drought here shortly.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    The 20z HRRR is insistent on some ridge crawlers running east through the metros after 8pm this evening. Based off satellite, Id say that isn't happening. The CU field is just fading away.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I surveyed that entire path. Started in Poolesville around 11:30pm - 2:00 am the night of the event. We even incorporated drones from the police department. After an exhaustive amount of work, there was a small gape of about 2 - 2.5 miles hence the split in the track.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    One thing we have going for us, RE: busting warm, is that our soils are bone dry. Every mesonet station clearly shows the 2" and 5" soil data nearly void of moisture. That might allow things to warm up fast.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Ain't happening. Euro is always too hot beyond D3.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Soil data (temp and moisture) is now available on the Frostburg mesonet site: https://weather.umd.edu/mdmesonet/?station=frostburg
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Preview of winter 2024-2025?
  8. Eskimo Joe
    As we get into the summer, we typically do great on parameters save two: EML and a strong kicker. As a result, we get those glorious pulsers that wreck one are but spare the rest of the county.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yea those "big heat" days are when you get a nice ridge stretched from Kentucky to Bermuda. You just bake.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Yea absolutely nothing excites me about Friday.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I think everyone is gun shy after last week.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Going for the Labor Day tease that does absolutely nothing, but reset our climo.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    This is our year. I finally have enough money saved for a week long vacation at the beach starting the day before Labor Day.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Euro 2m temps always seem overdone.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Broadcast mets need to stop with the 10 day rainfall forecasts. They should know better.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Where do you get these updates from?
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Montgomery County tornado path now updated to 26 miles.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Yea that June 2013 event was my first damage assessment. I've always leaned towards the mini tornado alley along the Frederick/Montgomery County line. Perhaps it's Parr's Ridge, or something else, but hopefully these mesonet stations will help diagnose this in the future.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    We're putting a mesonet site in Dickerson off Elmer School Road....probably would've helped with that cell. My ultimate wish is to have the Maryland Mesonet install some profiler sites like what New York does. More Lidar soundings that can be ingested through MADIS by SPC and NWS.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Yea the 00z balloon from Sterling was nuts. Supercell composite of over 20, with a fat CAPE profile. Really wish the NWS was funded better so they could launch special 18z soundings on these kind of days. I wonder if that would have caught the potential a bit better?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    It's amazing how we can really "luck out" on these high dynamic days with meager instability. If we had another hour or so of decent sun we'd probably would have had another half dozen tornadoes.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Video of Sykesville tornado yesterday. https://twitter.com/ShannonLillyTV/status/1798658497703526483
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Dews are crashing behind this line. Frostburg and Keedysville mesonet sites showing wind shift to NW and Td racing to the low 60s.
  24. Eskimo Joe
  25. Eskimo Joe
    I watched it from Damascus FD, then along Day Ridge Place. Base was flat, some scud, no lowering or rotation.
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